Jewellery’s festive sparkle is back — but will everyone get to shine?

“I wanted to gift my daughter a gold pendant as she passed out of college and landed a job, but had kept the purchase on hold as prices were too high. Gold has become a little cheaper than before now, and Ganesh Chaturthi is always an auspicious occasion to make such a purchase,” said Harshita Rane, a 58-year-old homemaker who was shopping at a jeweller in Mumbai’s famous Zaveri Bazar jewellery market.

Rane isn’t alone. Many others who had delayed their purchases due to sky-high gold prices are also expected to finally snap up their jewellery wish-list during this year’s post-monsoon festival season. The expectation has led to an air of cautious optimism in jewellery hubs such as Zaveri Bazar.

While there are initial signs of a positive sentiment among buyers, thanks largely to the festival season, gold prices are still at levels notably higher than in the festival season a year ago.

The latter half of the year usually brings good sales for jewellers as festivals like Navratri, Dhanteras, Durga Puja, and Christmas come thick and fast. In Maharashtra, Ganesh Chaturthi also draws many people to jewellery stores. The wedding season also picks up heavily immediately after Diwali, bumping up jewellery sales across India.

According to industry participants, although demand for jewellery is expected to pick up sequentially over the upcoming festival period, sales volumes may still be subdued over the year-ago period due to relatively higher prices. Moreover, smaller jewellers are expected to remain under pressure as the jump in prices of precious metals are bound to push jewellery buyers towards larger and trusted jewellery retail chains.

“We are entering the festive season with a cautiously positive outlook,” said Aditya Modak, Director at PNGS Reva Diamonds, a sister company of jewellery chain PN Gadgil & Sons. “The first half of the year was challenging for the jewellery industry, largely because elevated gold prices made consumers more price-conscious and led to a shift towards lighter-weight purchases. However, we are now seeing improving consumer sentiment as the festive and wedding season gains momentum,” added Modak.

Prithviraj Kothari, President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), also noted positive momentum during Ganesh Chaturthi. “After a subdued first half, we’re seeing early signs of a genuine revival in festive buying. Ganesh Chaturthi set an encouraging tone. Footfall picked up meaningfully compared to the softer trend earlier in the year, with consumers returning for both auspicious purchases and lightweight, everyday-wear pieces,” said Kothari.

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Volumes subdued, but higher prices compensate

The jewellers that The Indian Express spoke with expect to sell a lower quantity of jewellery over the festive period vis-à-vis last year as high gold and silver prices are likely to keep some of the potential customers at bay. Even among those that are likely to still buy jewellery, the grammage for many could be lower than what they may have had in mind.

Jewellers expect that the decline in sales volumes would be offset by higher realisations due to elevated prices. “Festive season in India is always strong, and I don’t expect it to be otherwise this time round too. Gold prices are obviously high, so I guess volumes in terms of kgs or tons may come down a bit. Maybe 10-15%. But the value will make up for the growth for everyone,” said Colin Shah, Managing Director at Kama Jewelry.

“For the upcoming festive and wedding season, we expect jewellery demand to improve progressively. In our business, we are looking at healthy high-single-digit to low-double-digit growth in overall value, while volume growth is likely to be more moderate because of the elevated precious-metal prices,” noted Modak of PNGS Reva. “The trend is not necessarily about postponing purchases. It is about getting greater design value within a comfortable ticket size,” added Modak.

Kothari of IBJA expects a 15-20% year-on-year volume growth this festive season “as pent-up demand meets improved sentiment”, though he noted that this would still trail the usual demand seen before the gold rally.

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Customers have continued to favour lower-karat gold jewellery, studded jewellery, and smaller pieces, which partially shield them from the high gold and silver prices and help them to buy within budget. Many customers have also been using old gold to fund new jewellery purchases for this.

Having skyrocketed to Rs 2.3 lakh per 10 grams in early 2026, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange have fallen and are currently trading at around Rs 1.5 lakh this week, with investors offloading the yellow metal in favour of more lucrative and yield-bearing assets like bonds. By comparison, the precious metal traded around Rs 1.2 lakh-1.3 lakh per 10 grams during last year’s festive season, after surging amid US tariff threats.

Bonds have become increasingly more attractive for investors as inflation due to high crude prices and geopolitical disruptions led to an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve earlier this month. Other central banks like the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have also raised interest rates this year, and the Reserve Bank of India could also hike rates in its coming monetary policy meetings.

Higher interest rates often lead to bond yields rising, making it a more attractive investment than gold or silver, which do not bear any yields by themselves.

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Bigger chains thrive while smaller jewellers struggle

Jewellery has increasingly become an occasional or one-off purchase with a higher ticket size and the bigger jewellery stores continue to thrive as customers look to purchase from trusted brands in this high-price environment. Moreover, the stronger balance sheets and higher volumes of the bigger jewellery chains also enable them to provide higher and more lucrative discounts for customers than the smaller standalone jewellery stores. These big chains are also able to innovate faster in terms of products and designs.

“As the years keep going up, the industry will keep getting more organised. As that happens, the share of larger organised retailers will continue to grow,” noted Shah of Kama Jewelry.

The outlook remains damper for smaller players. “Smaller shops like us run on a limited cash flow. We do not have the ability to give such high discounts, we also have to pay our workers and craftsmen. So such a high-price environment is very difficult for us. Many regular customers have stopped coming nowadays. We are adapting by innovating on other products like lower-weight pieces, studded jewellery, and better designs. But that also requires a large capital,” lamented the owner of a small jewellery shop in Mumbai’s Zaveri Bazar.

“The footfall has visibly fallen. Earlier, if I used to sell 10-15 pieces, now I manage to sell maybe 4-5 pieces. Sometimes not even that. I do not know about the money, but the crowd has noticeably thinned down,” said Rahul, who works at the counter for a small jewellery store in the area.