US midterms 2026: Can Democrats flip four Republican-held Senate seats? 11 key races to watch, from Texas to Ohio

US midterms 2026: Democrats are seeking to flip four Republican-held Senate seats to take control of Congress in the US midterms. With several races closely contested, Trump’s approval ratings, voter frustration and campaign spending could shape the outcome.

US midterms 2026: Democrats are entering the final stretch of the 3 November US midterm elections with an ambitious target: flip at least four Republican-held Senate seats while retaining all their existing seats to reclaim control of the upper chamber.

Several contests across the country have tightened, with Democratic candidates mounting competitive challenges in traditionally Republican states, including Texas, Kansas and Iowa.

However, Republicans continue to hold an advantage in campaign advertising expenditure, spending $560 million compared with Democrats' $521 million across 11 key races, according to AdImpact data cited by CNN.

The spending gap widens to $81 million when Georgia and North Carolina, where Republicans have significantly reduced their advertising efforts, are excluded.

US President Donald Trump's approval rating stands at 34% in CNN's Poll of Polls average, while voter concerns over the economy, the war in Iran, and corruption have become key issues shaping the electoral contest.

CNN's assessment of the 11 Senate battlegrounds draws on polling, campaign spending, fundraising, conversations with strategists and the political environment in individual states. It is not a prediction of individual race winners or overall control of the Senate.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper holds a commanding lead

Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican nominee Michael Whatley by 14 percentage points among likely voters, according to a final High Point University/YouGov poll.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown challenges Republican incumbent

Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed after JD Vance became vice president, by 50% to 45% in CNN's polling average. Republicans nevertheless outspent Democrats approximately $141 million to $102 million in October.

Texas

Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in 32 years. While polling remains competitive, recent New York Times/Siena and CNN surveys have placed Talarico ahead.

Maine and Alaska

In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 50% to 46% in CNN's Poll of Polls. Collins is the only Republican incumbent seeking re-election in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024.

Alaska is also emerging as a closely contested race. A New York Times/Siena poll puts Democrat Mary Peltola at 48% and Republican Senator Dan Sullivan at 46%. Ranked-choice voting could delay the final result by several weeks.

Kansas and Iowa

In Kansas, a New York Times/Siena survey showed Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49% to 44%. Democratic groups also outspent Republicans in October, while Hamilton entered the final campaign stretch with a larger cash reserve.

Iowa remains competitive, with Democrat Josh Turek polling at 46% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 45% in CNN's polling average. Trump won the state by 13 percentage points in 2024, making it a significant challenge for Democrats.

Michigan and New Hampshire

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 45% in Michigan, according to CNN's polling average.

In New Hampshire, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas leads former Republican Senator John Sununu by 12 percentage points in a University of New Hampshire poll.

South Carolina and Georgia

South Carolina's Senate contest has tightened, with a New York Times/Siena poll showing a statistical tie between appointed Republican Senator Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews.

Georgia has become a less promising Republican pickup opportunity.

Other states, including Nebraska, Mississippi and Minnesota, remained on the radar during the campaign but did not become fully competitive Senate races.

The results across these 11 races will be closely watched as Democrats attempt to overcome the Republican advantage in the Senate and reshape the balance of power in Washington.

About the Author

Bhanu Pratap is a journalist who reports and writes on foreign affairs, India’s foreign policy, geopolitics and strategic affairs. He closely follows diplomatic developments in New Delhi and has a keen interest in defence and national security.<br> <br> Bhanu also focuses on in-depth, interview-based reports and regularly speaking with experts and policymakers to bring perspectives and context to major developments around the world.<br> <br> He is also interested in stories with strong humanitarian angles.<br><br> One such report examined the cases of Indian nationals who were allegedly recruited and forced into Russia’s war against Ukraine. While reporting the story, Bhanu spoke to the families of those affected and documented their experiences. The report was later taken into account by the United Nations in its findings on human rights violations linked to the war in Ukraine.<br> <br> For Bhanu, the zeal to produce meaningful and impactful journalism remains at the heart of his work.<br> <br>He has previously worked with Firstpost, NDTV, Newslaundry and Republic.<br><br> Bhanu studied at the Delhi School of Journalism, University of Delhi. He initially chose science with plans to pursue engineering, influenced by conventional expectations, but fate had other plans and eventually led him to journalism.<br><br> Beyond the newsroom, Bhanu enjoys exploring culture and history and often spends his days off on heritage walks. He is also passionate about travelling, biking and listening to folk music.<br> <br>For tips, reviews and suggestions, you can reach him at bhanu.pratap@htdigital.in.