Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State CFB picks: Running games likely to determine important CUSA matchup

This page may contain affiliate links. If you click a link and sign up, make a deposit, place a wager, or make a trade, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you.

It's an important Conference USA game tonight when Jacksonville State visits New Mexico State

Oct 28, 2026 at 8:54 am ET • 4 min read

It's getting to the point where I'm becoming a Conference USA guru of sorts, with the league having all these early season weekday games. There's another doubleheader tonight, and while the first game is on CBS Sports Network, the 8 p.m. ET matchup featuring Jacksonville State at New Mexico State is much more important in terms of the league race. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass when they spend $5+:

ESPN2 has the telecast, and the forecast in Las Cruces is lovely: A few clouds. Low 56F. Winds light and variable. There seems to be a nationwide trends outage issue, but from what I can gather JSU at -3.5 and Over 49.5 are taking solid leans.

You can try college football betting on the best sports betting apps, but first you should check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games from both the simulations and our experts. We have a strong play here for those who want to get into parlay betting for Jacksonville State vs. New Mexico State. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive $55 in trading bonus credits here:

Jax State vs. NMSU same-game parlay

• Aggies alt +8.5
• Gamecocks alt Over 22.5

DraftKings price: +134 (subject to change)

Liberty is probably CUSA's best team (-1000 to reach title game) and sits tied for first at 3-0 in the league with Jacksonville State, while New Mexico State is right behind at 2-1. The Gamecocks are -200 to reach the CUSA Championship Game for a third straight year, while the Aggies are +500 to get there a second time in their history (2023).

Needless to say, tonight's loser is in some trouble in that regard. For what it's worth, Liberty visits NMSU on Nov. 7 but doesn't face JSU in the regular season.

Jacksonville State enters on a four-game win streak, but three of those were decided by four or fewer points – including a 27-24 home win over Florida International on Oct. 13 in the last game. JSU QB Caden Creel directed his sixth career game-winning drive, with the key play a 34-yard third-down pass to Ronnel Johnson to FIU's 8-yard line.

Shortly after, Garrison Rippa hit the winning 26-yard field goal with 44 seconds left. FIU had a shot at a 49-yarder at the gun but missed wide right.  Rippa's 47 career field goals are now two shy of the school record. His six career game-winning field goals in the final minute of regulation or overtime are a CUSA record. Since moving up to the FBS in 2023, Jax State has now won eight games with a score in the final minute of regulation or in overtime.

JSU also extended its NCAA-best streak of 65 consecutive games with a rushing touchdown thanks to Justus Savage's 4-yard TD run in the third quarter. That's 25 games more than the next-longest active streak across all Division I programs (Montana State in the FCS at 40). Dual-threat QB Creel passed for two scores and has at least two total TDs in six straight games. He's the only FBS quarterback averaging at least 225 passing yards and 70 rushing.

The Gamecocks improved to 13-1 overall in weekday CUSA games, easily the league's best over the past four years, and has 11 straight wins. That lone loss came to Liberty in 2023.

One thing to keep in mind if you are considering a live bet late in the second quarter: Jacksonville State's defense has allowed a touchdown in the last 1:41 of the first half in all six games vs. FBS competition. Use the latest BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you bet on college football:

New Mexico State puts a 5-1 record all-time at home in weekday CUSA games on the line, with that lone loss last year against Missouri State. The Aggies come off a 30-24 win at Sam Houston last Wednesday for their first road win after dropping each of the first three away by double digits.

Tailback James Jones rushed for 178 yards and a score, the highest yardage total by an NMSU back since November 2019. Jones also eclipsed 2,000 rushing yards in his NCAA career (FBS and FCS) and he's averaging 111.0 rushing yards per to lead CUSA and rank 10th nationally.

NMSU is putting up 151.4 rushing yards per game (second in CUSA) after finishing last in the nation in 2025 in rushing offense at 77.3 YPG. The Aggies have surpassed 200 yards rushing three times in 2026 and won each. JSU allows 156.4 rush yards per.

On the flip side, New Mexico State gives up just 109.1 rushing yards per game to lead CUSA and rank 30th nationally. That would set the school record. In just conference games, the Aggies are surrendering a scant 51.3 rush yards per game, which leads all FBS programs in conference play. It is 16.7 yards per game fewer than the next closest average as MAC school Miami of Ohio is holding its league foes to 68.0 YPG. This marks the first season since at least 1994 that NMSU has held four foes under 75 rushing yards.

Each of Jax State's last seven road CUSA games have been decided by seven points or fewer. Feels like the ground games will decide this, and a lot of running means a lot of running clock. The model has JSU by a score of 27-24. This series is tied 1-1, and they haven't played since 2024. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.