Israel’s moment of truth: Knesset election pivotal to future US-Israel relationship - opinion

The upcoming election in Israel will likely prove pivotal in determining whether the ongoing erosion in support for Israel in the United States devolves further into a full rupture that makes both Americans and Israelis less secure.

As Americans, we are not interested in picking winners and losers. Israelis should decide such things, but our friends there should understand the consequences of their decisions.

Our colleague Mark Dubowitz has recently warned of a possible American financial warfare against Israel. Some of this risk is linked to a growing campaign of antisemitism and anti-Zionism that has exploded since the October 7 terror attacks plunged the Middle East into conflict. But some of this is also linked to senseless violence in the West Bank and other concerns.

If the next government in Israel, regardless of who leads it, fails to punish and end lawlessness and cruelty by anarchists in the West Bank, there could be painful consequences. 

We firmly support Israel’s right to exist and defend itself and believe that America is safer, and US interests in the Middle East are more secure, when a strong Israel works closely with Washington. We are proud that America and Israel have fought together to defend common interests and to counter common enemies.

Enemies of US engaged in unprecedented cooperation, understand value of partnerships

America’s enemies – namely the Axis of Aggressors, consisting of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – are engaged in unprecedented cooperation. Our foes understand the value of partnerships.

America needs partners, too, especially capable and motivated partners like Israel. We need Israel’s muscles in the Middle East so we can focus more on deterring and defeating aggression by Beijing, Moscow, or Pyongyang. Americans also benefit from Israel’s defense-technology expertise and defense-acquisition agility, which can help ensure American warfighters wield the best weapons.

But we are witnessing a sad paradox with Israel. On one hand, Israel has demonstrated that it is the most powerful military in the Middle East, worthy of closer cooperation with the United States. Israel has battled back and gained the upper hand in a regional war that it neither started nor wanted. And yet, in the United States, Israel is more unpopular than it has been in years. This is clear in recent polls from Pew, Gallup, and the Ronald Reagan Institute.

This is a strategic liability for Israel. A steep decline in approval could lead the next Congress and US administration to adopt policies that undermine our bilateral relationship, including defense cooperation. That would materially damage the security of both the US and Israel.

Some in Israel may respond by shrugging and saying, “Fine, Israel will just become independent and self-sufficient in its defense production and arm itself.”

But that is not possible. Israel is heavily reliant on major American-made platforms and will remain so for decades.

True defense production independence doesn’t just require assembly lines in Israel. It also requires suppliers and raw materials in Israel. Many of the inputs for Israeli-produced weapons are imported, meaning a hostile administration could try to block them.

Israel’s enemies are actively working to drive a wedge between Washington and Jerusalem. The goal is to slowly but surely deprive Israel of the means to defend itself. Unfortunately, those enemies are capitalizing on some Israeli unforced errors.

It is certainly true that some of the withering criticism of Israel will continue regardless of the country’s policies. It is also true that enemies are increasingly well-organized and funded, and they are conducting information warfare against the United States and Israel.

But explaining the negative shift in opinion in America solely through those dynamics is simply unrealistic. Such efforts ignore the agency of the Israeli government and encourage a dangerous apathy in terms of undertaking necessary reforms. The rule of law and the distinction between combatant and noncombatant are a primary difference between defenders of Western civilization and the terrorists who murdered innocents on September 11, 2001, and October 7, 2023.

US-Israel security cooperation needed more than ever

As threats to Americans grow, we need US-Israel security cooperation more than ever. And Israel needs continued American diplomatic and defense cooperation. But this could prove difficult if some Israeli policies continue.

Battles against the terrorist regime in Iran and its proxies will continue, as will the fight against disinformation and blind hate that unfairly targets Israel. But that does not absolve Israel from making some crucial decisions about its own conduct. The fate of the US-Israel alliance could hang in the balance.

Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Jonathan Schanzer is executive director at FDD.