US Midterm Elections 2026: Republicans vs Democrats, who will control US House, Senate? Prediction markets reveal odds

Ahead of the 2028 presidential elections, the November “midterm” election will test the waters for Trump's party, whose second term has largely been controversial. Here's what prediction markets — Kalshi and Polymarket – suggests on the probably outcome of the polls.

Only 36 days remain until the US midterm general elections, which will be held across the country on November 3, 2026. All eyes will be on the ruling Republican Party's performance as President Donald Trump's approval rating declines amid pressure to end the war in Iran.

Ahead of the 2028 presidential elections, the November “midterm” election will test the waters for Trump's party, whose second term has largely been controversial.

The 'midterm' takes place halfway through the four-year Presidential term, i.e in the middle of the four-year term. The composition of Congress is decided in this election. Congress is literally on the ballot. All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, plus one-third of the 100 seats in the US Senate are up for a vote.

Which party will win the US House?

Democrats have an edge over Trump's Republicans in the US House, according to both Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, and Kalshi, the first Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange dedicated to trading on the outcome of future events.

With trends suggesting a setback for Trump's party in the House, Polymarket data showed 93 percent bets in favour of Democrats and only 8 percent in favour of Republicans.

On Kalshi, the Democratic Party was trading at 91.6 percent, while Republican Party was at 8.4 percent.

Which party will win the US Senate?

On the question of 'which party will win the US Senate in 2026' on Polymarket, the Democratic party was trading at 63 per cent, the Republican at 38 per cent.

Meanwhile, "Democrats Sweep" was trading at 61 percent in "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms."

How does the midterm prediction market work?

Polymarket explains that a midterms prediction market lets users trade 'Yes' or 'No' shares on a specific question tied to Midterms-related events, such as "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms".

"Each share pays out $1 if the outcome resolves in its favour, and $0 if it does not," it says, explaining further that the current share price, for example, 61% on "Democrats Sweep", reflects the market’s implied probability for that outcome at any given moment.

Every Midterms market on Polymarket has outcomes priced between 0¢ and 100¢. That price is the implied probability of the outcome occurring.

For example, if "Democrats Sweep" is trading at 61% in "Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms", traders are collectively pricing in roughly that probability. Prices update continuously as new information, data releases, and events move trader sentiment.

US mid-term election: Trump's approval rating falls

The mid-term election in the US comes at a crucial time as dissatisfaction among Republicans on inflation has been growing since Trump launched the war on Iran in February that has pushed gasoline and diesel prices sharply higher.

According to Reuters, Trump's approval rating is lower than any recorded for his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, whose presidency ​was also marked by surging inflation and who ultimately ended his reelection bid after a poor debate performance heightened concerns about his age. Biden's low was 35%, reached in ​late October 2024.

Trump's approval rating fell to ​32% - the lowest of his political career - as his fellow Republicans soured on his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran ‌war, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Only 34% of the most recent poll respondents approve of the strikes on Iran.

Trump returned to the White House in January ⁠2025 on promises to tame inflation and end foreign wars. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in the hours after he was sworn in, he enjoyed a 47% approval rating.

About the Author

Akriti Anand is a Deputy Chief Content Producer at LiveMint. She is a digital journalist with more than six years in the news industry.<br><br> In her current role, she covers both national and international politics, and also keeps a close watch on the latest trends in science and space exploration. <br><br> Akriti joined the LiveMint team in October 2023. Before this, she built a strong career at other major media houses. She worked as a senior sub-editor at India Today. Later, she moved to CNBCTV-18. There, she covered high-pressure topics like breaking news and major elections. She spent much of her time analysing Parliament bills and complex political debates. She is also a skilled editor who knows how to polish a story for a digital audience. <br><br> One of her career highlights happened at CNBCTV-18. She made her first television debut during the Chandrayaan-3 mission. She also provided special on-air coverage for the Karnataka Elections. <br><br> When she is not busy with breaking news, Akriti loves to write explainers and interview experts on a wide range of issues. She also enjoys making complex space missions easy for everyone to understand. <br><br> Her education helps her tackle these diverse subjects. She holds a BA in English Literature, a Postgraduate Diploma in Mass Communication, and a Master’s degree in Development Studies. She is currently expanding her knowledge in climate journalism.<br><br> Connect with Akriti here<br> LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/akriti-anand-868285199">https://www.linkedin.com/in/akriti-anand-868285199</a><br> Twitter/X: <a href="https://x.com/AkritiAnand7">https://x.com/AkritiAnand7</a><br> Email: akriti.anand@htdigital.in

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