Houthi Red Sea advance, drone strikes leave Saudi Arabia isolated in major conflict - analysis

Saudi Arabia faces a potential two-front conflict as it weighs what to do about the Houthi advance. The Houthis swept down the coast of the Red Sea and took islands near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Meanwhile, the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq attacked the key East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis then attacked Saudi Arabia as well and even threatened Mecca on September 15.

Saudi Arabia has been in talks with US Central Command (CENTCOM), other Gulf states, and partners about what to do next. Reports even suggest Israel and Saudi Arabia could have new interests in common. However, it doesn’t appear the US will challenge the Houthis.

The US is monitoring the situation, and the Houthis are spreading messaging to the White House that they are not seeking confrontation. Riyadh now appears more alone than before.

The other Gulf states were considering a meeting in Oman with Iran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has praised Oman, months after US President Donald Trump had threatened Oman.

What comes next?

Reuters reported that the Houthi advance represents one of Saudi Arabia’s most serious setbacks in Yemen in years. The offensive illustrated weaknesses in Saudi Arabia’s assessments and the command structure of the Saudi-backed Yemen government fighters in Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince went to Cairo this week. Egypt could back a Saudi response.

The Houthis maneuvered tens of thousands of fighters into position last week around September 8 before their offensive. Media in the region initially suggested Houthi setbacks. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces subsequently collapsed during the offensive on the Red Sea. Riyadh knows it will not get major Western backing. It is in the same position it was in 2019 after the Iranian attack on Abqaiq.

The Houthi gains also have broader strategic implications. Control of territory overlooking Bab el-Mandeb could enable the group to threaten shipping and Saudi energy exports while expanding connections toward the Horn of Africa. Currently, the Houthis have not done much, but their presence means they can strike easily. This is a Sword of Damocles hanging over the Bab al-Mandeb.

The Houthis have launched attacks on Saudi Arabia over the last month. Over the last two months, they also sought to invite Iranian regime members to Sana’a, provoking Saudi Arabia. Iran is showing that although isolated by a US blockade, it can strike elsewhere.

As such, the Iranians now put Saudi Arabia in a multi-front bind. Saudi Arabia is a wealthy country, and it has many strategic sites. It has more to lose than the Houthis or Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Recently, the Houthis said they fired dozens of drones and missiles at the kingdom, prompting the Saudi Civil Defense to issue brief alerts in the neighboring cities of Khamis Mushait and Abha, according to reports at Arab News and Al-Arabiya.

"Iran does not interfere in Yemeni affairs," Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters on Monday. They claim the Houthis are "entirely independent actors who make their decisions based on their own interests.” The Houthis are upping their rhetoric.

Houthi strikes target air hangars, radars, ammunition

The Houthis' military spokesman Yahya Saree said this week that the group's strikes targeted "fighter jet hangars, radars, runways, ammunition depots" at King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait. The Houthis claim Saudi Arabia has carried out 300 airstrikes.

The Houthis have shown they can weather the storm and make advances in the past. Formerly known as Ansar Allah, they emerged from Yemen's Zaydi Shi'ite community in the north of Yemen. The movement fought a series of wars against Yemen's government between 2004 and 2010.

After the upheaval of the Arab Spring, the Houthis expanded beyond their traditional stronghold in Saada and seized Sanaa in September 2014. Yemen’s President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi eventually fled, setting the stage for regional intervention.

In March 2015, Saudi Arabia assembled a coalition of Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, to intervene in Yemen.

The war initially pushed the Houthis back from southern Yemen, but the group retained Sanaa and much of the northern highlands.

Years of airstrikes and ground fighting failed to dislodge them. However, there was a crisis with Qatar in 2017, and the Saudi focus on Yemen shifted.

The Houthis developed increasingly sophisticated missile and drone capabilities. Iranian technology and weapons transfers helped transform their capabilities.

UN investigators have documented Iranian-origin missile components and UAVs and concluded that the Houthis could not produce many of their more sophisticated systems without foreign support. By 2017-2021, the Houthis were often launching ballistic missiles and drones deep into Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi-UAE coalition increasingly fractured over the last two years. Abu Dhabi backed southern forces, called the Southern Transitional Council, while Riyadh continued supporting Yemen's internationally recognized government.

The UAE reduced its direct military presence beginning in 2019. A UN-mediated truce beginning in April 2022 largely ended Houthi cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Beginning in late 2023, the Houthis launched missiles and drones toward Israel to back Hamas. Israel carried out strikes on the Houthis as well. The US tried to protect shipping in the Red Sea. In March 2025, the Trump administration even carried out strikes on the Houthis.

However, the Houthis have shown, time and again, that they can emerge from these blows.