Mbappe said sorry to Beijing; Takaichi should not

Succumbing to Chinese pressure would merely be inviting a new round of demands

• By Gearoid Reidy / Bloomberg Opinion

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and French soccer star Kylian Mbappe have little in common, save perhaps the occasional boast about their hardcore work ethic. One is responsible for the world’s fourth-largest economy, home to 122 million people; the other answers to club management (and, to be fair, the French nation during the World Cup). However, they have both found themselves on the wrong side of Beijing for saying something the Chinese state would rather nobody said.

The Real Madrid striker was accused of “hurting the feelings of the Chinese people” over a perceived insult to Mao Zedong (毛澤東), founder of the People’s Republic of China. Apologies from the player, his team and the Spanish league have so far done little good; sponsorships have been torn up and La Liga banished from state TV.

One year ago, Takaichi also made supposedly hurtful comments about the possibility for Japan to become embroiled in armed conflict over Taiwan. Beijing’s campaign against her was similarly swift, and has included both rhetorical threats to have her decapitated and very real limits on the exports of rare earths.

Illustration: Mountain People

However, unlike Mbappe, Takaichi has declined to retract her comments. Pressure will be mounting on the prime minister to secure some diplomatic breakthrough with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) when he hosts the meeting of APEC leaders in Shenzhen next week. A handshake might be good optics, but Takaichi should look at what the soccer star’s apology has achieved before she considers altering her stance.

Takaichi is frequently accused of triggering the dispute by threatening to get militarily involved if China were to attack Taiwan. That is a narrative that Beijing quickly and effectively framed, and twists her remarks into something that she never said.

What she actually said was that a hypothetical Chinese blockade of Taiwan using warships, including force to prevent the US from breaking it, could constitute a situation that “threatens Japan’s survival.” That would allow, though not require, Japan to invoke its right of collective self-defense. The nuance has been lost into a shorthand that she “started a diplomatic spat with China” or “triggered a spike in tensions” by suggesting that “Japan could intervene militarily.”

An answer about a theoretical future scenario that said not that Japan would get involved but could be dragged in is more than several steps removed from saying it would actually go to war. Clearly, any fighting around Taiwan has the potential to engulf Japan: It is next door, any US action to defend Taiwan would be prosecuted from Japanese soil, where the US has about 60,000 military personnel, and Tokyo and Washington are treaty allies. That is before we even get to the threats to Japan’s own shipping lanes and territory should a contingency emerge.

Takaichi is merely making clear what Beijing’s own policy already implies: Any potential involvement exists only because China keeps force on the table. Remove that, and her hypothetical disappears too. Some suggest that she cannot retract what she said for fear of upsetting her conservative base. The real reason is simpler: While the truth can be hurtful, it cannot be recanted.

Was it wise for her to say what she said? Probably not; the ambiguity had its uses. However, the remarks signaled no departure from existing Japanese policy, which is far more evident in the building out of counterstrike capability and fortification of Taiwan-adjacent islands than anything that was said.

The roots of the “spat” were formed not on Nov. 7 last year, but a month earlier, when Takaichi was elected leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). She had already made building a stronger Japan a goal. Backlash was inevitable. Her comments were little more than a convenient excuse that engaged Beijing’s “pretext to escalate” playbook. Some other slight would have been found in a matter of weeks.

Indeed, Beijing has shifted from seeking a withdrawal of her comments to defending against supposed “neo-militarism.” Curbs on rare-earth exports are labeled as necessary to combat Tokyo’s “nuclear ambitions.” Its ideal scenario is for the LDP to turn to a more pliable, China-neutral leader who would walk back the comments; cue the handshakes, big smiles, the return of tourists and restart of exports, at least until the next blow-up.

Maintaining a defiant stance is far from easy. Japanese companies might be departing from China in record numbers, but many remain too dependent on its market. Just look at Hello Kitty maker Sanrio Co, which beat an embarrassing retreat from a tie-up with Japanese spy drama Vivant after the show had the temerity to depict China as a fictional villain (it is not broadcast in China). By showing Beijing that pressure works, such concessions merely invite the next demand.

Mbappe is not known for tracking back on the soccer pitch, and he has nothing to show for reversing the habit of a lifetime here. Takaichi has never been one for retreating either. Now is not the time to start.

Gearoid Reidy is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan. He previously led the breaking news team in North Asia and was the Tokyo deputy bureau chief. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.