In Manchester, Premier League superiority is now separated by Haaland’s cutting edge

While London has a host of top-flight clubs and Liverpool have been regular contenders, the story of the Premier League can almost entirely be told with Mancunian main characters.

From Manchester United’s decade-plus of dominance under Sir Alex Ferguson to Manchester City’s emergence among the oil baron class, with a grip made firmer under Pep Guardiola’s guidance, it seems one must always beat a Manchester club to the title. Never before has the trophy spent more three seasons before returning to one of these two clubs, with a pair of three-year roadshows in the mid-2000s and mid-2010s.

After Liverpool’s win in 2024-2025 and Arsenal’s title last season, we may be in the final year of a similar passage. While United entered the season with optimism fuelled by their greater stability than most of their rivals and City’s lofty aspirations regardless of which bald man patrols the technical area, neither club was a popular pick to stop Arsenal from a repeat. If Sunday’s Manchester Derby is any indication, both sides are still a ways from hitting the Gunners’ level.

This matchup has always carried more raw passion than most rivalries. That feistiness remains. Phil Foden’s first-half red card meant the game struggled to find a regular tempo, forcing City to back off of their more ambitious ideas a quarter of the way in.

United, for the most part, failed to make the most of the numerical advantage in their 1-0 loss. Only three of their 16 attempts on goal were on target, while City won a greater share of both ground and aerial duels. As Harry Maguire got baited by Enzo Fernández’s chicanery, City eventually leaned into Erling Haaland, who spurned United among other suitors to join City in the summer of 2022.

City will continue to revel in that signing. Regardless of how the tactical approaches for this matchup have changed over time, it remains true that instinctive strikers who can wring a half look out of nothing are rare. Just look at United’s efforts at finding their own version. Marcus Rashford spends too long on the wing to operate with the same central instincts. Rasmus Højlund had his shot. Benjamin Šeško and Matheus Cunha are alternating at present. But in a game with so few clear looks, a toenail’s worth of opportunity made all the difference.

And what an odd sequence that was. It takes some straining of human understanding to suggest that Fernández’s full-stretch dive towards the ball didn’t constitute an intentional effort to be involved in the play. Pro Ref, the organization that oversees refereeing in the Premier League, has at least admitted the ruling was in error. But in the moment, there was simply chaos. Claiming Haaland was onside by the thinnest of windows while being unable to show the crucial 3D VAR still frame, coupled with Michael Oliver’s decision to not announce clarification of the ruling, left all involved in disbelief.

Then again, the nature of the winner only drives home how little separates the two, both a bit below a customary title winner’s boil. While United’s passing has improved early in Carrick’s first full season, it’s hard to pick what is a more damning statistic: their 26.2% strike accuracy or their 37.5% tackle success rate, which may be more telling. As for City, the expensive efforts to replace Rodri will take some time to settle, and the auxiliary attackers around Haaland still aren’t operating with dependability.

So, two points dropped for United and two found by City with an unusual assist from the booth. Maresca’s men are level on points with Arsenal, but time will tell whether they can sustain that challenge all season.

• This is an extract from Soccer Desk, a newsletter from the Guardian US. Subscribe for free here.