NBA predictions: Expert picks for 2026-27 awards as Wemby has inside track to two honors, but what about ROY?

The parity era has seemingly reached the NBA's award races. Every major award in the 2024-25 season (MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Clutch Player of the Year and Coach of the Year) went to first-time winners. That was the first time that had happened since the 2014-15 season.

Last year did give us one second-time victor: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP. Otherwise, it was all newbies. Six out of our 15 All-NBA selections were also new: Jalen Duren, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Johnson, Jamal Murray, Tyrese Maxey and Cade Cunningham were all honored for the first time.

Should we treat this as the new normal? Perhaps not in every context. Nobody can likely catch Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year if he's healthy, for instance, but there's something to the concept of cycling through new award winners in today's day and age. The 65-game rule winnows down the field. Apron-induced roster churn puts practically the entire league into new roster circumstances with each passing year. Younger players get more chances as the 82-game season wears on their older counterparts.

The NBA has tried to create parity in the standings, but perhaps inadvertently has done so everywhere else. We live in a world with a mostly flat lottery, potentially flat standings and the realistic expectation of new award winners each season.

So who's taking home this year's trophies? That's what we've gathered here to find out. Below are the awards picks made by the CBS Sports NBA staff, covering all season of the individual honors referenced above.

MVP

Award	Brad Botkin	John Gonzalez	Robby Kalland	Jack Maloney	Sam Quinn	Cameron Salerno
	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Victor Wembanyama	Luka Dončić	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

DPOY

Rookie of the Year

Most Improved Player

Sixth Man

Coach of the Year

Clutch Player

Expert explanations

Brad Botkin: Wemby will officially take over the league this year. Both of those awards could be unanimous, though that's unlikely for MVP. Rookie of the Year is going to be as exciting a race as we've had in some time. I had a mind to take Dylan Harper for Most Improved, and deep down I do think he's the best bet to win, but I think Bailey is going to pop this year in Utah and he's starting from a lower baseline, so I'll give him the advantage. Ajay Mitchell is a starter on just about any other team. I've got Boston being better this season than they were last year despite trading Jaylen Brown, which is a blueprint for Coach of the Year. Luka is going to have to do a lot of late-game heavy lifting for a Lakers team playing on thin margins given its defensive issues beyond Walker Kessler, and he'll be up for the challenge. 

John Gonzalez: Wemby pulls off the double dip, winning his first MVP and his second of what should be many Defensive Player of the Year awards. He'll have to beat out serious competition for the former, but the latter is a lock. As long as he clears the 65-game threshold, there's no surer bet in basketball. The Rookie of the Year race usually comes down to gaudy counting stats, which basically means role and opportunity. There's no one standing in Boozer's way in Memphis. It's already his team. And while everyone is hyper-focused on the Knicks, Celtics and new-look Sixers all being competitive at the same time in what should be an entertaining but brutal battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, here come the Raptors to quietly surprise everyone with a 50-win season and a Coach of the Year nod for Darko. 

Robby Kalland: If Wemby plays 65 games, he's the DPOY every year for the foreseeable future. If he levels up at all offensively, he's going to be the MVP as well -- an award he also could win a bunch of going forward, but will eventually deal with voter fatigue. 

This is the most fun ROY race heading into a season in some time, and it's bizarre to feel like I'm being rebellious by taking the No. 1 overall pick. I understand the logic behind Boozer as the selection, but I think people are underestimating the role Dybantsa is going to play in Washington. He's going to be heavily featured and will be playing with the best passing guard in the league in Trae Young, which should yield plenty of productivity and better efficiency than most expect. 

After giving Ausar Thompson a huge extension, the Pistons are committed to him as a key part of their core long-term. They're not paying him nine figures just to be an elite defender. I expect them to look at what Houston's done with his twin brother to get him impacting the game more offensively with his athleticism. Vassell's candidacy is dependent on how long the Spurs roll with their three-guard lineup, but if he spends most of the season coming off the bench, he has a great chance. He's one of San Antonio's few high-end shooting threats, and that means even with a lot of mouths needing to get fed, he's going to get looks. 

Coach of the Year is won by overachieving and Toronto has a great chance to do that. It's them and Boston for me, but Mazzulla won last year, and no one's ever won back-to-back in COY. Clutch Player requires someone to play in close games a lot and the Lakers aren't going to be good enough to blow teams out regularly, meaning Luka ought to have plenty of chances to nab this award.  

Jack Maloney: I would be surprised if one of Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić does not win MVP. No one has won that award three times in a row since Larry Bird, and the Spurs are almost certainly going to have a better record than the Nuggets, so I'm going with Wembanyama. He's also the obvious pick for DPOY. 

I went with Boozer for ROY. He's the chalk pick for a reason. Most Improved Player is always a crapshoot, so how about Scoot Henderson? The Blazers' backcourt is crowded, but he played very well down the stretch last season and is fully healthy. I'll take Ayo Dosunmu for Sixth Man. He looked very comfortable in Minnesota after the trade last season and should put up some big numbers running the Timberwolves' second unit. Four of the last five Coach of the Year winners have led their team to at least 56 wins. The Spurs should surpass that mark and Mitch Johnson hasn't won the award yet, so he's my pick there. And for Clutch Player, I'll go SGA, I guess.

Sam Quinn: The easiest award on the board is Defensive Player of the Year. If Wembanyama plays 65 games, he wins. That's no certainty, and you should approach his price cautiously as a bettor... but we're not picking him or the field here. Against any other single competitor, he's a no-brainer. Clutch Player is the award least worth predicting. It's fundamentally a volume award, as three of the four previous winners led their respective seasons in clutch points and the fourth, Jalen Brunson, finished second by a single point. We can't say who will win because we can't say who will play the most clutch games, and therefore have the most opportunity to rack up clutch numbers. So I just threw up my MVP pick as a narrative tie-in.

Cam Boozer is the chalk pick for Rookie of the Year, but this is a counting stats award and I'm a bit curious about how Tuomas Iisalo's unconventional approach to rotation management affects his playing time and rhythm. Instead, I'm leaning towards preseason standout Caleb Wilson, especially given the efforts Chicago has taken to put the ball in his hands. Coach of the Year is pretty straightforward: it tends to go to the most surprising coach to earn a top-2 seed. Well, my four top-2 seeds are the defending champion, the 2025 champion, the 2026 runner-up... and the team that just traded Jaylen Brown. Joe Mazzulla's regular-season track record is spotless. You win a lot of games by shooting the most 3s, getting the most offensive rebounds, protecting the rim more fiercely than anyone else and never turning the ball over. If Boston once again dominates the regular season, I'm willing to defy the historical track record against repeat winners to pick him. Coby White has thrived statistically as a primary ball-handler in small doses. With all of the shooting Charlotte has accumulated, I think he will again. Daniss Jenkins is one of the last remaining shot-creators in Detroit. The Pistons are going to need a ton out of him, and he'll deliver.

There's a formula for MVP winners. Since LeBron James in 2012, every winner has been between the ages of 24 and 28, and they've been a reigning First- or Second-Team All-NBA player. We only have three eligible candidates in that window. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going for the threepeat that James, Michael Jordan and, most recently, Nikola Jokić, couldn't secure. Voter sentiment is working against him. Cade Cunningham is playing in a loaded East on a team that just spent all summer feuding with its All-Star center. I just expect them to take the sort of step back in the standings that tends not to help in the MVP race. That leaves Luka Dončić, the perpetual bridesmaid in this race. He always starts seasons as a favorite. He always posts MVP-caliber numbers. And he always winds up losing to someone on a better team. This is the year things come together for him. He's on a roster designed to suit him. LeBron is gone. The Lakers belong to Luka. With Gilgeous-Alexander burdened by the MVPs he's already won and Victor Wembanyama expected to win many, many more in the future, I'm expecting sympathetic voters for Luka, probably the best player never to win an MVP. If not now, then when?

Cameron Salerno: Gilgeous-Alexander is still the BITW. While Wemby is the best defender, ITW. Both of those are easy. The ROTY race will be extremely competitive, but Boozer will put up the most numbers of the group. I don't love picking a former No. 2 overall pick for most improved player, but Harper is going to take a star-level jump and establish himself as the best guard on the Spurs this season. I picked the Jazz to finish sixth in the West and take a massive leap, which will lead to Hardy winning COTY.