The ozone hole has burst open: Analysis reveals how the opening over Antarctica has 'increased sharply' this month - and is set to get even bigger
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By SHIVALI BEST, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDITOR
Published: | Updated:
The ozone hole has burst open over Antarctica – and is set to get even bigger.
That's according to scientists from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), who have been measuring the opening over the last few months.
In August, the hole was developing at a 'typical' rate, reaching an area of around 5.79 square miles (15 million square km).
However, in the first half of September, the area of the hole increased sharply, reaching 9.6 million square miles (25 million square km) on 12 September.
That's around 1.9 million square miles (five million square km) above average for this period.
'These findings highlight the importance of monitoring the complicated interaction between human–made disturbances and natural factors,' said Laurence Rouil, Director of CAMS.
The ozone hole has burst open over Antarctica – and is set to get even bigger. That's according to scientists from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), who have been measuring the opening over the last few months
The ozone layer protects life on Earth by absorbing much of the UV radiation from the sun – a major cause of skin cancers.
Over almost half a century, human–caused emissions have resulted in the thinning of the ozone layer.
This thinning is most pronounced over the Antarctic, where a hole reopens every austral spring (September to November).
In the late–1970s, the hole measured a record 11.42 square miles (29.6 million square km).
However, recent years have seen smaller and more short–lived ozone holes, hinting that the ozone layer is recovering.
The latest analysis shows that the hole was developing at a typical rate throughout August, before increasing sharply at the start of this month.
Meanwhile, forecasts show a possible further increase in mid-September.
As for why this is happening, the researchers say that a sudden decrease in temperatures is likely be to blame.
Cold weather allows for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds, which play a role in activating the chemical removal of ozone via halogens in the presence of sunlight.
Mr Rouil added: 'The Antarctic ozone hole's development can vary considerably from year to year, depending on a range of atmospheric and chemical factors.
'While we have seen its area increase rapidly in early September this year, other indicators remain close to historical averages.'
The latest analysis shows that the hole was developing at a typical rate throughout August, before increasing sharply at the start of this month
The news comes shortly after CAMS confirmed that August was the warmest month ever recorded globally.
The average temperature last month was 16.96°C (62.52°F) - even higher than the previous record holder, July 2023, which had an average temperature of 16.95°C (62.51°F).
In addition, last month saw the average sea surface temperature hit a record high – a sure sign that El Niño is strengthening.
'August 2026 was a remarkable month in the global climate record,' said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
'It was both the warmest August and the warmest month ever recorded, with global temperatures reaching 1.65°C above pre–industrial levels, marking the return of global temperatures above 1.5°C.
'Combined with record global sea surface temperatures and the warmest summer on record for Western Europe, these observations show how climate change is driving extremes across both the atmosphere and the oceans.
'The impacts of these conditions are increasingly being felt by communities, economies and ecosystems across the world.'
The Ozone layer sits in the stratosphere 25 miles above the Earth's surface and acts like a natural sunscreen
Ozone is a molecule comprised of three oxygen atoms that occurs naturally in small amounts.
In the stratosphere, roughly seven to 25 miles above Earth's surface, the ozone layer acts like sunscreen, shielding the planet from potentially harmful ultraviolet radiation that can cause skin cancer and cataracts, suppress immune systems and also damage plants.
It is produced in tropical latitudes and distributed around the globe.
Closer to the ground, ozone can also be created by photochemical reactions between the sun and pollution from vehicle emissions and other sources, forming harmful smog.
Although warmer-than-average stratospheric weather conditions have reduced ozone depletion during the past two years, the current ozone hole area is still large compared to the 1980s, when the depletion of the ozone layer above Antarctica was first detected.
In the stratosphere, roughly seven to 25 miles above Earth's surface, the ozone layer acts like sunscreen, shielding the planet from potentially harmful ultraviolet radiation
This is because levels of ozone-depleting substances like chlorine and bromine remain high enough to produce significant ozone loss.
In the 1970s, it was recognised that chemicals called CFCs, used for example in refrigeration and aerosols, were destroying ozone in the stratosphere.
In 1987, the Montreal Protocol was agreed, which led to the phase-out of CFCs and, recently, the first signs of recovery of the Antarctic ozone layer.
The upper stratosphere at lower latitudes is also showing clear signs of recovery, proving the Montreal Protocol is working well.
But the new study, published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, found it is likely not recovering at latitudes between 60°N and 60°S (London is at 51°N).
The cause is not certain but the researchers believe it is possible climate change is altering the pattern of atmospheric circulation - causing more ozone to be carried away from the tropics.
They say another possibility is that very short-lived substances (VSLSs), which contain chlorine and bromine, could be destroying ozone in the lower stratosphere.
VSLSs include chemicals used as solvents, paint strippers, and as degreasing agents.
One is even used in the production of an ozone-friendly replacement for CFCs.
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