AFC team grades: Chiefs among four teams in 'A' range, three teams receive 'F' after four games played

The first month of the NFL season can play tricks on us. Last year, through four games, Baker Mayfield was looking like an MVP candidate, and the Buccaneers were 3-1. The Colts were also 3-1, and Daniel Jones was not only putting up even better numbers than Mayfield, but putting up some of the best numbers in the league -- one of the most out-of-nowhere quarterback surprises in recent memory.

On the other side, the Panthers were 1-3 and coming off a 26-10 shellacking courtesy of the Jaguars. The Texans were also 1-3. Both of those teams made the postseason.

Of course, there are plenty of early signs that prove true, too. The Bills and Eagles were the only undefeated teams through four weeks last year, and both were playoff teams. The Saints, Titans and Jets -- all 0-4 at this point last year -- ended up continuing their poor play and landing top-10 picks.

What we can say for sure is that it's early. The standings of today will look very different one month from now, let alone three months from now when the regular season wraps up. Still, with four games down, we've seen enough to hand out first-quarter grades to every team, taking into account not just their record, but how they've looked getting there and how that projects moving forward.

We'll start with the AFC today and move to the NFC on Wednesday.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (3-1): B

The Bills came out gangbusters with wins over the Texans in Houston and against the Lions on a short week, totaling 77 points in the win. But the nagging turnover issues hit the last two weeks -- five in a narrow Week 3 win over the Chargers and two more in a Week 4 loss to the Patriots. Familiar issues on defense are rearing their ugly head, too: Buffalo is 30th in defensive EPA per play and 29th in defensive success rate. This looks like a playoff team once again, but unless the same old issues get fixed, it won't be a Super Bowl team.

New England Patriots (2-2): C

Recency bias helps the Patriots here, with a Week 4 win over the Bills propping up what has otherwise been a lackluster start. The Patriots missed a prime opportunity to open the season with a win, but Drake Maye threw three interceptions in a loss to the Drew Lock-led Seahawks that included A.J. Brown suffering a high ankle sprain. Maye's nine turnovers lead the NFL, and his mistakes are shrinking New England's margin for error every week. On a better note, the defense has been solid, especially against the pass.

New York Jets (1-3): C-

Through three weeks, the Jets were about what we expected them to be: bad but not embarrassingly bad. They beat the Titans and then played the Packers and Lions close, probably giving away what should have been a win against Green Bay. Then in Week 4, the Bears had more first downs (34) than the Jets had offensive plays (32). It's the first time that's happened in an NFL game since 1999. New York didn't convert a single third down. Still, it's hard to be too harsh here: Garrett Wilson looks great, as do David Bailey and a host of other youngsters. This team has three(!) first-round picks in 2027. The Jets are a low-ceiling operation, but their floor is clearly much better than last year, which was the aim after acquiring a bunch of veterans. It's not a fun outlook, but the fun should start come draft season.

Miami Dolphins (0-4): D+

If the Dolphins hadn't lost De'Von Achane to a torn ACL, this grade would likely be a C or C-, similar to the Jets. This is what we thought the Dolphins, bereft of established NFL talent, would look like. But losing a centerpiece, whom you signed to a long-term deal this offseason, to a major injury has to be accounted for here. Otherwise, it's fair to be a bit disappointed about Malik Willis so far, though he really doesn't have much help around him. The Dolphins are getting nice flashes from several of their 13-player rookie class, and that is what matters most. Still, 0-4 is 0-4. The Dolphins haven't led for a single second yet this season. Just one win would boost this grade significantly, but dealing with a 0-17 watch is no fun.

AFC North

Cleveland Browns (3-1): A-

After a 34-10 loss to the Jaguars to open the season, it looked like things could come unglued quickly for Cleveland. Since then, though, the Browns have won three straight games and moved into the AFC North lead. Deshaun Watson has produced solid quarterback play and has been even better late with three straight game-winning drives. The turnovers are still a concern, but considering he was historically bad when he last played -- and tore his Achilles twice since -- this is a stunning comeback. Meanwhile, rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have impressed at wide receiver, and Spencer Fano and Austin Barber are holding up along the offensive line. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has had his moments at safety. Mason Graham was taking a huge step (pre-injury) in his second year. GM Andrew Berry and early Coach of the Year frontrunner Todd Monken should be very excited.

Baltimore Ravens (3-1): B

This grade would be bumped up to a B+ or A- if Lamar Jackson hadn't suffered an ankle injury against the Titans. It's not believed to be a long-term thing, but his status for Week 5 is up in the air, and Jackson knows all too well how frustrating nagging injuries can be. It's even more of a bummer because he is off to a truly marvelous start this season. He leads the NFL in net yards per attempt and trails only Brock Purdy in EPA per dropback. Declan Doyle has unlocked Zay Flowers, too, and the offense is super explosive. The defense -- new coach Jesse Minter's specialty -- isn't quite there yet, ranking seventh in success rate but 15th in EPA per play. More sacks (Baltimore is 23rd in sack rate) would help.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2): C

The Steelers are on pace to do the sort of thing they always do of late: go about .500 with a low-ceiling offense and a playmaking defense and either miss the playoffs or sputter out of it in the first round. The offense is 26th in EPA per play and 25th in success rate, which is actually worse than last year, but it's making up for it with more explosives. The unit as a whole has been better the past couple of weeks, too. Still, it's just so stop-and-start under Aaron Rodgers at this stage in his career. The defense is giving up a ton of big plays and dealing with several injuries, which isn't helping, either.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2): C

The Bengals didn't commit tons of resources to the defense and retain Joe Burrow's entire supporting cast this offseason to be at the bottom of the AFC North, yet here they are. Both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are dealing with injuries, which impacts this grade, too. The defense isn't as awesome as it looked early on -- perhaps the Buccaneers and Texans, both 0-4, weren't the perfect barometers -- but it is improved. If it can cut down on the big plays allowed, it's actually been decent down-to-down. The offense has been a bit of a letdown: top five in explosive play rate, but outside the top 10 in success rate and poor in the red zone. The run game is struggling. The move to more under-center snaps was a good idea in theory but has been terrible on the field.

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1): A-

The Jaguars have the best point differential (+51) in the AFC and trail only the 49ers (58) league-wide. The offense is top-10 in both success rate and explosive play rate. Trevor Lawrence picked up right where he left off last season and very much looks like an MVP candidate; he ranks in the top 10 in several statistical categories, including third in touchdown rate, and he's more accurate than ever before. Watching him throw lasers over the middle of the field is about as good of quarterback play as you'll see. Bhayshul Tuten has made a nice Year 2 jump as well. The defense is shaky against the pass but strong against the run. It leads the NFL in turnover rate and is second in red zone efficiency.

Indianapolis Colts (2-2): C-

The Colts' two wins have come against the Texans without Nico Collins (about as lifeless an offense as there is) and the Commanders without either of their top two quarterbacks. Jayden Daniels (elbow) was already out, and Marcus Mariota (knee) left after two series. But hey, they all count, and after nine straight losses dating back to last season, the Colts will certainly take two wins in a row. What they won't take is Daniel Jones' turnover nightmares -- only Maye has more turnovers than Jones' seven -- as well as a defense that looked awful the first two weeks. Indianapolis really missed Alec Pierce's field-stretching ability, and there's a ton on Jonathan Taylor's shoulders. If the defensive improvements of the last two weeks are legit, that's a positive sign, but it's hard to take too much away given the opponents.

Tennessee Titans (0-4): F

All that really matters this year is Cam Ward looking like he can be the answer at quarterback. He doesn't have to be great. He doesn't even have to be good. But he can't be this bad. He is near the bottom in most statistical categories; he's still inaccurate and not producing many explosives. The last fault really belongs to underwhelming coordinating from Brian Daboll. Ward has a rocket arm and an ability to play out of structure. But he's throwing deep at one of the lowest rates in the league, and he really doesn't look comfortable in the RPO game, which Daboll insists on using for some reason. This is just a bad offense, but it's also some bad quarterbacking. If this season is all about Ward -- and it should be -- it's been a failure so far.

Houston Texans (0-4): F

It doesn't really matter that all four losses have been close, or that C.J. Stroud has shown real improvement when Collins is on the field. When you are perceived as a Super Bowl contender entering the season and winless after four weeks, that is a failure. The running game remains one of the league's worst despite significant investments there this offseason. Houston is currently 27th in rushing success rate, which is somehow on pace to be the best it's been since drafting Stroud. But the biggest disappointment is the defense, which is giving up big plays and only good -- not great, like it was last year -- down to down. DeMeco Ryans' poor decisions aren't helping, either.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0): A

The AFC's only undefeated team gets its highest grade. Kenneth Walker III has been nothing short of revolutionary for this offense, which ranks second in explosive rush rate after ranking 31st over the previous two years. That has also helped Patrick Mahomes rediscover the deep ball after that area was dormant recently. It should be noted that Tyquan Thornton's loss is a big one, and Rashee Rice is also expected to miss a few weeks. With Kansas City looking for reinforcements, perhaps a Tyreek Hill reunion is in order. The defense has had its ups and downs, to be expected for a unit adding a lot of new faces, many of them young. Mansoor Delane looks terrific, and the unit as a whole has done a great job limiting big plays.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-1): A-

Considering this organization was in absolute disarray nine months ago, the Raiders are in terrific shape. Kirk Cousins, brought in to keep the seat warm and mentor Fernando Mendoza, has been so much more than that. He's playing like he's 10 years younger and never had an Achilles tear. He's one of several free agents proving to be providing outstanding return on investment. Linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker have been huge additions. Brock Bowers looks like a superstar once again after an injury-plagued second season and another knee surgery that cost him the first two games of this season. Most importantly, Klint Kubiak looks like a really good coach after the Raiders completely struck out on Pete Carroll last year and, before him, Antonio Pierce and Josh McDaniels.

Denver Broncos (2-2): C

The Broncos have two of the NFL's best wins -- over the Rams and the Jaguars -- and two very concerning losses to the 49ers and the Chiefs. The defense, so dominant last year, has been pretty average this year. After recording 68 sacks last season, tied for the fifth-most in NFL history, Denver has eight through four games this season, and its sack rate has been cut in half. Jonathon Cooper's continued absence has played a large role in that. Bo Nix, meanwhile, has been inconsistent to put it nicely. He's 18th in EPA per dropback and 27th in yards per attempt. His 27 completions of 10+ yards are the fewest of any quarterback who has started all four games this season. The running game remains middling at best. The offense could improve as new offensive coordinator Davis Webb does, but this isn't the start anyone hoped for.

Los Angeles Chargers (0-4): F

There's not much left to say about the Chargers that hasn't been said already. They are awful. They lost a game in which they forced five turnovers. They lost to the Cardinals. The Mike McDaniel offense, so hyped up all summer, is 29th in EPA per play, 24th in success rate and 24th in explosive play rate. If you can't check any of those three boxes, you're going to have a bad time. Justin Herbert has been similarly poor and cannot be excused. His turnovers have been awful. He's also playing behind a miserable offensive line and a pass-catching group that makes a ton of mistakes. Both things -- Herbert being bad and his supporting cast being bad -- can be true, and they are. This is a stunning low, one that could shake the Chargers to the core come season's end.