Labor and Albanese slump to new lows in Newspoll, but Labor improves in a DemosAU poll

Labor’s primary vote in Newspoll was down two points to 27%, their worst Newspoll since 2012 and just one point above their record low. Anthony Albanese’s net approval slumped six points to a new low of -27.

However, in the DemosAU poll, Labor’s primary vote was up two points to 28%, their highest in that poll since February. The combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition was steady at 49% in Newspoll, but down three points to 46% in DemosAU, the lowest combined right vote in DemosAU since January.

In the last two weeks, the Morgan and DemosAU polls have been relatively good for Labor, but Newspoll and Resolve have been relatively bad.

In the August DemosAU poll, Bob Hawke was the most popular former PM, followed by John Howard and Robert Menzies, while Scott Morrison was the least popular.

In state polls, a Victorian Redbridge poll ahead of the November 28 election gave the Coalition a 56–44 lead over Labor. A New South Wales Resolve poll would still give Labor a clear two-party lead due to NSW’s optional preferential voting and the split right vote.

Federal Newspoll

A national Newspoll, conducted September 14–17 from a sample of 1,244, gave One Nation 30% of the primary vote (steady since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago), Labor 27% (down two), the Coalition 19% (steady), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 11% (up two).

This is Labor’s second lowest ever primary vote in Newspoll, which they had last equalled in April 2012 when Julia Gillard was prime minister. Labor’s lowest ever primary vote was 26% in September 2011.

Albanese’s net approval slumped six points to -27, his worst in Newspoll since he became PM, with 62% dissatisfied and 35% satisfied. Angus Taylor’s was up two points to -15 (50% dissatisfied, 35% satisfied). Pauline Hanson’s was down six points to -7 (51% dissatisfied, 44% satisfied).

The graph below shows that Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll has been on a clear down trend since the beginning of 2026. His net approval has been at -15 or below since late February.

In the normal better PM question, Albanese led Taylor by just 42–41, his lowest margin this term (previously 44–35 to Albanese). In a three-way forced choice, Albanese had 44% (down two), Hanson 32% (up one) and Taylor 24% (up one). After preferences from Taylor’s voters, Albanese led Hanson by 55–45 (56–44 previously).

DemosAU poll

A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted September 10–14 from a sample of 1,583, gave Labor 28% of the primary vote (up two since the mid-August DemosAU poll), One Nation 26% (up two), the Coalition 20% (down five), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 13% (steady).

It’s Labor’s highest primary vote in a DemosAU poll since February, and the combined right’s lowest since January.

No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections gave Labor a majority of House of Representatives seats with 76–88 out of 150 (61–73 previously). One Nation had 38–49 (26–39 previously), the Coalition 8–21 (32–50), the Greens 0–4 (0–5) and others 6–11 (5–10). These seat estimates apply uniform swings to the May to July DemosAU MRP poll.

Albanese’s net positive score was up three points to -16 (45% negative, 29% positive). Taylor’s was steady at -4 (27% negative, 23% positive). Hanson’s was up four points to -12 (44% negative, 32% positive).

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese had 36% (up one), Hanson 25% (up three) and Taylor 21% (down two). In head to head matchups, Albanese led Hanson by 45–33 and Taylor by 39–35 (43–32 and 38–36 respectively in August).

By 66–13, respondents supported giving social media users the choice to opt out of algorithms. By 65–22, they thought social media platforms should be legally required to reduce risks instead of being free to decide.

On the growing black market in illegal cigarette sales, 47% thought the government should cut cigarette taxes significantly while 37% favoured increased law enforcement.

Ratings of former PMs

In an additional question from the August DemosAU poll, Bob Hawke (Labor) was the most admired former PM with a net positive score of +31. John Howard (Liberal) was second at +24 and Robert Menzies (Liberal) third at +17. Ben Chifley and John Curtin (both Labor) were equal fourth at +11.

Malcolm Fraser (Liberal) was sixth at +7, Gough Whitlam (Labor) ninth at +4 and Paul Keating (Labor) 11th at +1. The five most recent PMs were the bottom five, with Gillard (Labor) at -2, Kevin Rudd (Labor) at -5, Tony Abbott (Liberal) at -6, Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal) at -9 and Scott Morrison (Liberal) at -16.

Morgan poll on One Nation’s support by place of birth

Morgan has aggregated its polls from the first seven months of 2026, with an overall sample size of more than 26,000. Overall, One Nation had 24% of the primary vote. Support for them was highest with those born in South Africa (36%), Italy (30%) and mainland Europe (29%). However, those born in Asia only gave One Nation 9%, with mainland China the lowest at 5%.

Victorian Redbridge poll

The Victorian election is on November 28. A Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Australian Financial Review, conducted September 1–14 from a sample of 2,371, gave the Coalition 29% of the primary vote (down one since a Redbridge poll that was taken after the change of premier from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in late July).

One Nation had 25% of the primary vote (up three), Labor 24% (up one), the Greens 15% (up one) and all Others 7% (down four). While Labor is in third on primary votes, Greens preferences would put them well ahead of One Nation, so a Coalition vs Labor two-party estimate is still relevant.

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 56–44, a one-point gain for Labor. Labor led One Nation by 53–47.

The graph below shows that the two Redbridge polls taken since late July have been Labor’s worst by respondent preferences. I first introduced this graph last Tuesday.

NSW Resolve poll

The New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the federal August and September Resolve polls from a sample of 1,100, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (steady since July), One Nation 25% (steady), the Coalition 24% (up one), the Greens 11% (steady), independents 5% (down three) and others 5% (up one).

No two-party estimate was given, but analyst Kevin Bonham estimated Labor led the Coalition by more than 55–45. Optional preferential voting in NSW helps Labor due to the split right vote.

In a three-way preferred premier question, Labor incumbent Chris Minns had 27%, Liberal leader Kellie Sloane 15% and One Nation state leader Mike Newman 8%. Minns had led Sloane by 36–16 in July.