PH-Bersatu pact has no chance against Umno-PAS, says analyst

An electoral understanding between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu in the Melaka polls will not stand a chance if Umno and PAS agree on an alliance, an analyst said.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania said both PH and Bersatu appeared desperate for a pact with each other, even an informal one, especially after the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance’s convincing win in the Negeri Sembilan polls.

“Both are pushed into a corner, and they think the best way to approach Umno-PAS is for a pact to be formed between them. But if Umno and PAS can reach a deal, then the PH-Bersatu pact will fail, except in DAP areas,” he told FMT.

Chin said the main justification for a PH-Bersatu alliance — despite their history of bitter enmity — was to ensure straight fights to prevent the splitting of votes by electors who were against Umno and PAS.

Bersatu, co-founded by former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin, is a former PH component that played a key role in the collapse of the PH-led federal government in February 2020, resulting in Muhyiddin taking over as prime minister.

Despite being a co-founder of PN, Bersatu has fallen out of favour in the coalition after falling out with PAS, which currently chairs the opposition entity.

In the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls, the BN-PN pact secured a two-thirds majority with 25 seats while PH won the remaining 11. Bersatu contested 24 seats but lost heavily in all.

In the 2021 Melaka polls, BN won 21 seats while PH took five and PN two as the three coalitions clashed in all 28 seats.

Key player, yet dispensable

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid argued that Bersatu could provide PH with a crucial boost in votes, especially since 10 of the 21 seats BN secured in 2021 were won with marginal majorities.

They are Serkam (79-vote majority), Pengkalan Batu (131), Duyong (200), Tanjung Bidara (364), Gadek (559), Durian Tunggal (559), Paya Rumput (629), Pantai Kundor (827), Rembia (860), and Kelebang (876).

He said Bersatu could help deliver just enough Malay-Muslim votes to help PH pip its opponents to win these marginal seats.

“BN’s dominance in Melaka is not as overwhelming as it seems. With the help of a few thousand more Malay-Muslim votes, it might just be enough for PH to tip the scales in Melaka,” said Fauzi.

“With Bersatu as PH’s partner, it gives some assurance to Malay-Muslim voters that their plight would not be overlooked should the PH-Bersatu alliance come to power in Melaka, and even nationally.”

Nonetheless, he said Bersatu would be more desperate for a pact with PH than the other way around, as Muhyiddin’s party would want to avoid a repeat of its heavy defeats in the Negeri Sembilan polls.

“For PH, while a tie-up with Bersatu may offer some benefits, Bersatu is not indispensable. PH can do without Bersatu, but for Bersatu, going it alone in Melaka would only be a repetition of the Negeri Sembilan polls.”

Voters in Melaka go to the polls for the 16th state election on Nov 14.

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