ANDREW NEIL: It's time for the Tories and Reform to stop knocking lumps out of each other, bury their egos and do what's best for Britain

Nigel Farage beat a bin on Thursday to return to the House of Commons as Reform UK MP for Clacton in an unnecessary by-election of his own making.

His victory resolves none of the matters that have been afflicting him this year and which have dragged down the poll ratings of him and his party.

The scale of his win was convincing. He took 63 per cent of the vote, up 17 points on the 2024 general election. He won 1,000 more votes than two years ago, even on a reduced turnout (which at 43 per cent was nevertheless impressive for a by-election).

The other big parties refused to participate in a bid to minimise its importance, a move that paid off handsomely. The by-election became something of a farce, with 33 ‘joke’ candidates filling the void.

Sometimes we are too cavalier, too careless in our treatment of the precious gift that is democracy – and some folks are clearly at a loss what to do of a summer, even when the sun is shining.

Count Binface, anointed Farage’s main challenger by the Reform-hating media and chattering classes, became the beneficiary of the anti-Reform forces, winning almost 9,500 votes. It still baffles me that Reform didn’t see the boycott coming, given it was exactly what happened when Tory MP David Davis indulged in the same surprise by-election stunt in 2008 for reasons nobody can now remember.

For a party with aspirations to run the country, Reform can still exude a curious mixture of ignorance and naivety.

If Reform was hoping Clacton would help it regain momentum after getting bogged down in a series of sticky patches, it’s likely to be quickly disappointed. All Clacton demonstrates is that Farage is as popular in his backyard as Andy Burnham is in his. I think we knew that already.

Nigel Farage beat a bin on Thursday to return to the House of Commons as Reform UK MP for Clacton in an unnecessary by-election of his own making

Nothing undermining Farage and his party before Clacton has been relieved by Thursday’s victory. The parliamentary inquiry, halted during the Clacton campaign, into why a Thai-based crypto-billionaire ‘gifted’ Farage £5million in the run up to the 2024 election will soon resume.

Given the contradictory reasons Farage has already given for being in receipt of such a large sum (to cover security costs, as a reward for Brexit, because the donor admires him), there’s a good chance this inquiry will not go well for Farage.

Then there’s the financial support he’s received from convicted fraudster and crypto gambler ‘Posh George’ Cottrell that was used to fund Farage’s office and security. The Metropolitan Police have been investigating £500,000 in donations from Cottrell’s mother to Reform for more than a year. These and other accusations swirling around Farage and his party have taken their toll, not just on Reform’s poll ratings but on Farage himself.

He has become increasingly irritated and irascible when pushed on money matters, morphing from the happy warrior with the trademark chuckle in the face of hostility into a dismal Jimmy who isn’t paranoid – he knows for sure everybody has it in for him.

There is more in play than the fate of Farage. British politics could be at yet another turning point. If 2025 was the year of the insurgents, with the rise of Reform on the Right and the Greens on the Left at the expense of Labour and the Tories, 2026 has been the year the insurgency wasn’t just halted but beaten back.

Not many months ago Reform was riding high in the polls, always in the lead and at one stage breaking the 30 per cent barrier, allowing it to think that an overall majority come the next election was not out of the question. Labour, already losing votes on its Right flank to Reform, was panicking that it was haemorrhaging even more on its Left to the Greens, who were breathing down Labour’s neck in the polls. The Tories were below 20 per cent and struggling not to fall further.

Now look at the state of play. The latest YouGov poll has Labour in the lead at 24 per cent, for the first time in 18 months overtaking Reform on 22 per cent, its worst poll rating since March 2025. The Tories are up two points and are now just behind Reform on 21 per cent.

The Greens have slid back to 12 per cent, going nowhere fast under the weird Zack Polanski, who’s been rumbled as much as Farage in recent months.

Count Binface, anointed Farage’s main challenger by the Reform-hating media and chattering classes, became the beneficiary of the anti-Reform forces, winning almost 9,500 votes

The Liberal Democrats are back on the brink of irrelevance with a dismal 11 per cent under the lacklustre leadership of Ed ‘Dismal’ Davey (surely the Lib Dems have to confront the Davey problem at their annual conference next month). It has been Farage’s misfortune to find himself floundering in a sea of woes at a time when Burnham has given Labour a new flicker of life and Kemi Badenoch has come into her own as Tory leader.

As a result, Reform, its clear and consistent lead vanished, now sits alongside Labour and Tories within polling’s statistical plus-or-minus 3 per cent margin of error of each other. It means all three have all to play for. The Greens and the Lib Dems increasingly look like also rans.

Of course, we live in a febrile political age in which no sooner is a trend identified than it’s reversed. Burnham, who has still to make a full transition from TikTok influencer to Prime Minister, has yet to be tested.

Badenoch’s personal popularity – some 38 per cent now think she’s doing a good job as Tory leader versus only 23 per cent almost a year ago – will not necessarily rub off to the advantage of the tarnished brand she leads. So the revival of what we used to regard as the country’s two dominant parties could be short-lived.

Burnham has the bigger challenge. The mega-dinghy which crossed the Channel this week has put illegal migration firmly back on the agenda. That plays to Reform’s agenda. So does the dispersal of illegal migrants to leafy towns and villages. Burnham has little to say about either issue – and he’s been all over the place on the early release of prisoners in jail for violent crimes.

Above all, we have yet to see the shape of a Burnham economic policy. All will no doubt be revealed come the Budget on October 28.

It might not be a pretty sight: given we’re already borrowed to the hilt, it’s hard to see Burnham can do any of the costly stuff he talks about – social care, nationalisation, devolution, more public investment – without yet another huge increase in taxes.

But Farage has post-Clacton problems of his own. Not just that Commons inquiry but the need to rediscover his mojo at a time when his party risks being squeezed between a reviving Tory party and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Party. The problem with a one-man band is that, when that one man plays the wrong notes – as Farage has been doing – the whole ensemble is out of tune.

Above all, we have yet to see the shape of a Burnham economic policy. All will no doubt be revealed come the Budget on October 28

Reform has failed in its strategic goal to replace the Tories as the main party of the Right. If Burnham turns out to be more formidable as PM than he has so far indicated, you could see Labour climb further in the polls towards that magical 30 per cent, while Reform and the Tories slog it out in the lower 20s.

Labour strategists are now daring to think that they might, after all, win the next election – or at least emerge as the biggest party.

With Reform and the Tories knocking lumps out of each other, it’s perfectly possible. It’s too soon to talk about a pact. Reform and Tory minds will only be concentrated if and when Labour starts to pull ahead in the polls.

But neither party on the Right should say or do anything that makes a future accommodation impossible or harder. Reform needs to grow up, the Tories to realise that returning to power on their own is well nigh impossible, at least in this decade.

The policy differences between Reform and the Tories have narrowed – and can narrow further. Let Lowe’s Restore be the repository of the reactionary Right.

A second five-year Labour term would condemn Britain to perpetual high-tax, high-spend, high-regulation socialist stagnation. Time for all those on the mainstream Right to bury their egos and do what’s best for Britain.