Vladimir Guerrero Jr. defends bad start to $500M contract: 'Based on what I did, not ... what I'm going to do'

The power-zapped first baseman put up a disappointing 2026 for a Blue Jays team that went from the World Series to closing in on playoff elimination

Sep 23, 2026 at 1:25 pm ET • 2 min read

Just as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was in many ways the face of the Blue Jays' 2025 playoff run that saw them claim the third pennant in franchise history and push the juggernaut Dodgers to the absolute brink in the World Series, he's also been the face of Toronto's surprising struggles in 2026.

The Jays are on the verge of elimination and will likely finish below .500 despite expectations of title contention. As for Guerrero Jr., his numbers at the plate tumbled this year: 

That amounts to an OPS+ of just 92, or a park-adjusted OPS that's 8% worse than the league average. Coming into 2026, he had a career OPS+ of 136. This season, Guerrero Jr. has hit just nine home runs and only one at home. He's slugged just .359, and his WAR has dropped from 4.6 a season ago to 1.3 in 2026. The backdrop to all of this is the $500 million contract extension that Guerrero signed prior to this season. That contract will run through 2039, and suffice it to say it's not off to an encouraging start from the club standpoint. 

Guerrero Jr. was recently asked about his struggles and what they say about that record extension. Here's what the 27-year-old first baseman recently told Telemicro News, as translated by Héctor Gómez: 

"The contract I got was based on what I did, not necessarily for what I'm going to do. I understand why the fans believe it's the other way around. Sometimes I think that way too, like 'oh they give me this money and I'm not doing enough', but you know I try my best and I'm working hard.

The fans I know how they are, when you are doing great they are 100% behind you but when you are not at your best not everybody is behind you, almost nobody supports you. Those are my real fans, the ones that are supporting me all the time."

There may have been a time when teams doled out contracts based on past performance, but that time has long passed. These days -- and for some time -- teams sign players to contracts based on market conditions, of course, but those market conditions are informed by what teams think the player will provide them moving forward. Contracts are an expectation, not a reward. Guerrero Jr. is of course free to interpret his contract as a nod to his past – and to be sure, his standing as a highly popular homegrown player is part of it – but in reality, it's about what the Jays think they can get from him during his remaining prime seasons. 

Paying so much for a first baseman whose power outputs were inconsistent was always a dubious proposition from the team's point of view, but the prospect of it already going sideways is even more troubling. It's one season, which means it's far too soon to declare this some kind of boondoggle. However, Guerrero Jr.'s inability to do damage on contact raises real worries moving forward. And "moving forward" is what this is all about, despite how the player himself perceives such matters.