Polling guru Sir John Curtice favourite to lead PM’s first-past-the-post voting review

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice has emerged as the favourite to lead Andy Burnham’s commission on electoral reform that could see the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system scrapped.

The commission to change the voting system for parliament was announced by Andy Burnham amid a series of startling policies in his first speech as prime minister at a Labour Party conference in Liverpool.

It will consider changing the way people cast their votes in Westminster elections, with the prime minister himself supporting a switch to a proportional representation (PR) model, in a move that could prove seismic for the future of British politics.

While Sir John told The Independent that he has not been approached, Labour sources have said he is the preferred name to chair the commission on electoral reform in the hope it will provide it with authority and command trust from the public.

The 72-year-old Strathclyde University academic and UK’s leading polling expert was awarded a knighthood by former prime minister Theresa May and has become a well known face for the public over decades of commenting on polling.

Sir John is no stranger to the electoral reform debate and has sat on panels for campaign groups pushing for proportional representation such as Make Votes Matter and the Electoral Reform Society.

One senior Labour figure told The Independent: “John Curtice is the obvious person to chair this commission. The public know and trust him and will respect the conclusions if it is fronted by someone with his authority.

“Andy Burnham doesn’t have many options to chair this commission. Curtice is a no-brainer.”

A Downing Street source said they “are not at the stage” of approaching anyone yet.

Sir John has regularly commented on the way that the traditional FPTP system, where seats are decided by the party which gets the most votes in a constituency rather than a majority of the overall votes is becoming increasingly out of date.

In an article for the BBC in May said: “Historically, the [first past the post] system has also given whoever is the victor in the electoral battle between Conservative and Labour a boost in seats. The two parties thus both get the chance of securing a period of untrammeled majority government rather than having to negotiate the rocky shores of minority or coalition government.

“However, [last May's] election results raise questions about whether first-past-the-post will continue to benefit the Conservatives and Labour in future. Rather, they have shown that the system is colour blind in how it operates.

“The results confirmed that Britain has now entered an unprecedented era of multi-party politics.”

He also pointed out that “fewer than three in five people voted Conservative or Labour in the 2024 general election. That was the lowest proportion since and including 1922, when Labour first became the Conservatives' principal competitors.”

Speaking on a panel for Make Votes Matter in May, Sir John also highlighted the unfairness of the current system where a party can win many votes but still come away with very few seats.

He said: “If at the same time your vote goes down and becomes more geographically spread, the system will murder you.”

However, writing in The Times, Sir Johnwarned that Mr Burnham’s plans to introduce a more proportional system "would come at a price" for the party.

"Electoral systems vary in their degree of proportionality, but virtually any conceivable alternative would have treated Reform much more favourably," he wrote.

"While electoral reform might make it much difficult for a future Reform leader to become prime minister, it would make it easier for the party to establish the significant parliamentary presence it currently lacks."