Who will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are into high cricket score odds.

Sagal Abdi-Wali, Labour's candidate for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

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Sir Keir Starmer gained 18,884 votes, with the Greens far behind in third place with 4,030.

So, at first glance, Mr Polanski has little chance.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski poses for a photo as he campaigns in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election

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The numbers may be starting to stack up more favourably for the Green leader.

The numbers may now look increasingly enticing to Mr Polanski who previously listed a string of London seats which he would contest, including Holborn and St Pancras, if there was a vacancy.

But things then get more difficult for the Greens.

A new MRP poll by YouGov suggested that the Greens would win no MPs in London, if there was a general election tomorrow, with Labour holding onto 51 of the 59 it currently has in the capital.

George Galloway

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Suddenly, the numbers are looking more tricky for the Green leader.

Labour chiefs, though, believe they are outnumbering the Greens on the ground, that some people are returning to the party and that some Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters are considering backing Ms Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council, in an anti-Polanski vote.

So, the numbers in Holborn and St Pancras do seem to be looking increasingly more Red than Green.

If Mr Polanski loses all eyes will be on the size of Labour’s majority.

If he trails by a few thousand, he could argue he may fare better in Hackney or Lewisham at the next general election.

But if he loses heavily, questions will inevitably grow about his leadership.