A larger reckoning lies behind US midterms

Trump is not a strongman without an opposition. In its best version, the complexity of American politics at home is a check on the whimsical and unilateral exercise of America’s power abroad

New Delhi will hope that Washington’s recent policies — against the grain of what has been a deepening bilateral relationship for three decades — will be tempered after November 4.

3 min readNov 2, 2026 06:05 AM IST First published on: Nov 2, 2026 at 06:05 AM IST

Voters in the US midterm elections to 35 of 100 Senate seats, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and for governors in 35 states will likely have local and domestic issues on their minds. There is the mounting cost of living crisis, growing threat to jobs from new technologies, deepening polarisation and division on matters of immigration and culture. But the outcome of these elections will also resonate beyond the US: It will indicate the room for manoeuvre that the White House will have in its foreign policy vis-à-vis the wars in West Asia and Eastern Europe, and more generally, the political capital Trump carries into the second half of his term.

Opinion polls and the wider political conversation suggest that Trump’s popularity, including within his core MAGA base, may be eroding. On three key issues — ending “forever wars”, controlling inflation and price rise, and people’s anger at disconnected political and social elites — Trump appears to have disappointed his supporters. The all-but-unilateral invasion of Iran, and the subsequent effect on commodity prices, is hitting middle- and working-class Americans hard. The doublespeak over the so-called Epstein Files also appears to have made a dent. Attempts at redistricting and challenging the legality of mail-in voting have yielded mixed results, with US courts nixing the latter. In case Republicans lose both the Senate and the House, the battle lines between the legislature and executive will be more sharply drawn, and policies, whether on the White House’s weaponising of tariffs and trade, or its conduct in the conflicts in Ukraine and with Iran, will come under greater scrutiny. If the Republicans retain or exceed their current strength, it will embolden the White House to continue down the current course.

New Delhi will hope that Washington’s recent policies — against the grain of what has been a deepening bilateral relationship for three decades — will be tempered after November 4. There is, however, a broader lesson to be drawn from the current political moment in America. Whatever his own view of the presidential prerogative, Trump is not a strongman without an opposition. In its best version, the complexity of American politics at home is a check on the whimsical and unilateral exercise of America’s power abroad.