Kremlin distributes passports to Moldovans: "Why can't Moscow simply annex Transnistria?"

Kremlin distributes passports to Moldovans "Why can't Moscow simply annex Transnistria?"

News from Moldova is unsettling: On Sunday, a suspected Russian drone crashed on the Moldovan-Ukrainian border. On Monday, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated that Moscow would view potential provocations in Transnistria as an attack on its own territory and would "use all available means to protect Russian citizens." At the same time, the head of the breakaway Moldovan region, Vadim Krasnoselsky, declared that 60,000 people in Transnistria had applied for Russian citizenship within three months. According to his figures, this is in addition to the 220,000 of the approximately 500,000 inhabitants who already possess a Russian passport.

Is something brewing there? What is Russia's goal with these threats and the facilitated issuance of Russian citizenships? Eastern Europe expert Brigitta Triebel, head of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung office in Chisinau, discusses this in an interview with ntv.de.

ntv.de: In mid-May, Vladimir Putin signed a decree facilitating the issuance of Russian citizenships in Transnistria. Since then, around 60,000 people are said to have applied for a Russian passport. What is behind this?

Brigitta Triebel: This figure comes from Tiraspol - that is, from an authoritarian regime without free media or opposition. I would therefore read it very cautiously. The Moldovan government in Chisinau views it with great skepticism: For them, it is pure propaganda, an attempt by Moscow to weaken the pro-European government. I see this in the context of the new Moldovan strategy for the reintegration of Transnistria, which they presented at the beginning of the year. There is much to suggest that Moscow and Tiraspol want to prevent this rapprochement with such reports.

What is this strategy?

Chisinau does not want to give up its claim to Transnistria, meaning it continues to view Transnistria as part of the Moldovan state. The government of Moldova wants to gradually win back and reintegrate this region and the people there – through economic steps, through simplifications for the population, and only in a final step through a political solution to the conflict.

What suggests that this figure might not be true?

The majority of people in Transnistria have a Moldovan passport. And that is currently much more attractive than the Russian one. You can use it to travel visa-free to the EU, relatively easily obtain a work permit in the EU - and also apply for a Romanian passport in addition. Therefore, I would doubt that so many Transnistrians need a Russian passport.

What is the mood among the population of Transnistria? It could be that many want the Russian passport simply on principle, right?

There are no reliable polls; independent surveys are not possible there. One can assume that the majority is pro-Russian – the region has viewed itself for decades as an independent, pro-Russian entity that continues the Soviet legacy. But: In the last Moldovan parliamentary election, 30 percent of eligible Transnistrian voters voted for the pro-European governing party – a remarkably high number for a regime with only one official narrative, namely: The Soviet and Russian legacy is our future.

That is why I would say: It is certainly a divided picture. Many people in Transnistria still expect something from Russian citizenship. Russian passports have been distributed there since the 1990s – this is not a new instrument for Moscow to bind people to itself.

Does the Ukraine war have anything to do with the fact that people in Transnistria are increasingly orienting themselves towards Europe?

The war has massively worsened the economic situation. The model of the 90s – cheap heavy industry, free Russian gas, in exchange for political ties to Moscow – has not worked since the invasion. The economy is dilapidated, energy prices have risen, wages are low, and prospects for young people are missing. And the protecting power, Russia, is far away. Transnistria could not even be defended militarily without problems, because the troops closest to Transnistria are the Ukrainian troops on the direct border – which, by the way, is closed from the Ukrainian side.

Therefore, many, including young Transnistrians, are moving to the democratic part of Moldova to study and work. Economically, too, the region is increasingly orienting itself towards the West: 70 percent of Transnistrian exports now go to the EU.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister just stated that Moscow would view alleged potential provocations by Kyiv or Chisinau against Transnistria as an attack on Russia and would "use all available means to protect Russian citizens." That sounds like what Russia used to justify the invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. How do you assess this statement?

One should always take the messages sent from Moscow seriously. But this is also not news; it is the classic Russian approach that Chisinau has been struggling with since the early 90s: Moscow has never accepted or recognized the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova with its support for the separatists in Transnistria. Russia has repeatedly said that Russian citizens live there in Transnistria who must be defended. This is a classic argument to justify further influence – whether hybrid or, as in Ukraine, military.

So the threat should be taken seriously?

Such threats are of course noted in Chisinau, but they are handled relatively calmly. Russia can do little in the current war situation to defend its so-called citizens in Transnistria, because Ukraine lies in between. While there are a few – also illegitimately stationed – troops of the Russian army still in Transnistria, they would not have the potential to intervene militarily here. I understand such quotes as propaganda intended to signal to the people in Moldova: You are not safe; if you continue to vote pro-European, there will be consequences.

What is actually stopping Moscow from simply annexing Transnistria – for example, via a staged referendum, without military intervention?

Transnistria is interesting for Moscow primarily as a lever on politics in Chisinau – in the 90s, to prevent an independent Moldovan democracy, today, to block EU rapprochement and close partnership with Ukraine. Russia has never officially recognized Transnistria – presumably out of strategic calculation. Because then Moscow would have to finance the region completely: pensions, social system, education, energy supply... That would be expensive and would bring less benefit than the current state, with which one can repeatedly exert pressure on all of Moldova.

In addition: Transnistria is militarily almost impossible to defend. Access is only possible via the closed, monitored Ukrainian border or the Chisinau airport – both controllable by Moldova or Ukraine respectively. The conditions for an increased Russian presence are therefore currently unimaginably bad.

But Russia could draft the new Russian citizens in Transnistria for military service or for the Ukraine war.

In principle yes, and there was advertising for it in Transnistria from the beginning of the invasion. According to Moldovan authorities, however, the travel activities of young Transnistrians to Russia have been very low over the past four years - the interest in supporting Russia in the war seems to be low. Transnistrians can, whether with a Moldovan or Russian passport, travel to Russia, for example to study or to work there. And then the holders of Russian passports are potentially earmarked for military service like all other citizens. But for that, they have to get to Russia first.

Is participation of Transnistria in the war against Ukraine conceivable?

The Transnistrian political elites officially emphasize their support for Russia, but express themselves cautiously in detail – the relations between Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia have become more complex since the war. Most people in Moldova, including in Transnistria, have little interest in going to war for Russian goals. Transnistrians have access to free media from Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine, many have relatives there and therefore know well what is happening in Ukraine and what military service for Russia would mean.