BN the biggest winner if PN deregistration upheld, say analysts

The deregistration of Perikatan Nasional (PN) will come as a boon for Barisan Nasional (BN), and its linchpin Umno in particular, if it gets upheld by the court, analysts say.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara believes that without PN, PAS will find it harder to win over voters, making it necessary for the Islamic party to make concessions in exchange for BN’s cooperation.

Beyond that, University of Tasmania’s James Chin said that PN remained Umno’s last annoyance in a future partnership with PAS, as proven by Umno’s insistence on holding talks on the Melaka polls directly with the Islamic party, not PN.

For Azmi, one key factor is public persona.

He told FMT the PN logo had helped to soften PAS’s hardline image, especially in the eyes of non-Malay voters.

He pointed out that the picture of the coalition’s name emblazoned on a navy blue background projected a more moderate image. On the other hand, PAS’s own logo of the moon on a green background might not go down too well with non-Muslim and non-Malay voters.

“This could make PAS more desperate to negotiate an alliance with BN,” he said.

This, he added, could also force PAS to ease up on its demands for more seats to contest.

BN has made it clear that it will contest all 21 state seats it won in the last Melaka election in 2021, including the Rembia constituency, whose assemblyman defected to PAS before the state’s anti-hopping law came into force.

On Wednesday, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the coalition will contest 21 seats in the Nov 14 Melaka polls, while PAS and its PN allies will vie for the remaining seven.

In contrast, PAS said seat negotiations have yet to be finalised.

The Registrar of Societies (RoS) announced on Tuesday that PN had been deregistered on grounds that its response to a show-cause notice “failed to justify retaining its registration”.

However, the deregistration has been stayed by the High Court pending its decision on judicial review proceedings brought by PN to challenge the deregistration.

PN hinders direct Umno-PAS alliance

Chin said Umno would benefit most from PN’s deregistration as the coalition was one of the bigger obstructions to a direct Umno alliance with PAS.

“Through Bersatu, some former Umno members had a hand in forming PN. (So, with PN out of the way) Umno is the major beneficiary,” he told FMT.

PN’s formation in 2020 was seen as a core issue that led to the collapse of the Muafakat Nasional pact between Umno and PAS.

Chin said PN’s deregistration would also enable PAS to fully focus on forging a strong alliance with Umno.

Wawasan, Gerakan, MIPP at risk

While Umno gains, and the road ahead is cleared for PAS, PN’s deregistration may lead to a fallout for its other components — Wawasan, Pejuang, Gerakan and the Malaysian Indian People’s Party (MIPP).

Chin said Wawasan could be hit hardest by the new development given that it is still new and relatively unknown to voters despite the fact that its president Hamzah Zainudin is also opposition leader in the Dewan Rakyat.

“Wawasan’s logo is unknown, so it would really benefit from using the PN logo,” he said. Wawasan won three seats in the Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan polls contesting under the PN banner.

Azmi said PN’s deregistration gave PAS and Wawasan greater flexibility in redefining their pact, though this might disrupt their cooperation with Gerakan and the MIPP.

He expects Pejuang, Gerakan and MIPP to miss out on the Melaka polls while PAS and Wawasan contest under an alliance with BN.

“I think Gerakan and MIPP will not be contesting. If PAS works with BN, then they will only have around seven seats to contest, which I think will be divided between PAS and Wawasan,” he added.

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