Zahid still an Umno asset, but baggage piling up, say analysts

Despite leading Umno to convincing victories in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, analysts say the bigger test for party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will be sustaining the party’s momentum amid mounting controversies and questions over its direction.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Sivamurugan Pandian said Zahid remains an asset to Umno due to his firm grip on the party, ability to manage political alliances and success in keeping the Barisan Nasional lynchpin relevant as a key partner in the federal government.

However, he warned that the Bagan Datuk MP’s political baggage was piling up.

Sivamurugan said issues that could damage Umno’s image include the recent dispute over spending at Zahid’s rural and regional development ministry, controversies involving Tabung Haji and Felda, as well as the party’s alleged role in an attempt to remove the Negeri Sembilan ruler.

He said it would be unfair to blame Zahid for all three issues since some predated his leadership, but acknowledged that they have nonetheless added to his political baggage.

What has worked in Zahid’s favour, he said, was BN and Umno’s performance in the two recent state elections.

He said Zahid has helped Umno bounce back from its poor performance in the 2022 general election and 2025 Sabah state election with strong showings in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, resulting in BN leading both state governments.

“Zahid has brought Umno back into the game, but the challenge is sustaining that momentum.

“Recent controversies risk turning Umno’s electoral recovery into an image reversal. The question now is whether he can prevent the baggage from taking Umno backwards,” said Sivamurugan.

Where is Umno heading?

Universiti Putra Malaysia’s Jayum Jawan said Umno’s recent victories may have raised hopes of a comeback but questions remain over where the party is heading.

He pointed out that BN’s chosen partner for the next general election (GE16) remains uncertain, with the coalition working with Perikatan Nasional in Negeri Sembilan while still being allies with Pakatan Harapan in the federal government.

Jayum warned that these different positions could leave supporters unsure about Umno’s direction. “He is also seen as lacking clear strategies on how to sustain the blue wave seen in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.”

The analyst said Zahid was also faced with the challenge of leading a party still weighed down by controversies involving some of its past and present leaders.

He said allegations of wrongdoing involving Umno figures could dent the party’s image among its own supporters, particularly as many had held key positions in institutions now facing scrutiny.

“There is so much about creating bogeymen to put the blame on, but in the final analysis, positions of power in many institutions were previously or presently held by its members.”

Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said Zahid has shown that he remains prepared to defend Umno’s interests despite leading the party into a federal alliance with PH.

However, she said there was still uncertainty over Zahid’s actual stance towards the unity government.

Syaza added that the recent controversies afflicting Umno raise questions about the grand old party’s direction following its heavy defeat at the 2022 general election.

“Is Umno reforming itself as promised after the 2022 general election or is it simply ‘business as usual’?” she said.

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