EDITORIAL: Preparing for a second ‘Han Wave’

The official English name for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen’s (沈伯洋) campaign is “the Taipei Current.” It comes from the Chinese term yangliu (洋流), a direct translation of which would be “Ocean Wave,” using the last character of Shen’s name, yang (洋, “ocean”). The Chinese term is a reference to the 2018 campaign for Kaohsiung mayor that swept a hitherto marginal player within the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), who is now legislative speaker, whose successful campaign then was termed the “Han Wave” (韓流).

Shen’s usage of the Chinese term is intentional. He is the underdog in the Taipei mayoral race, taking on the incumbent, Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) of the KMT. Historically, the DPP has not fared well in the nation’s capital. Just as Han secured an unexpected victory for the KMT in a DPP stronghold in 2018, Shen hopes to ride the “Ocean Wave” to victory on Nov. 28.

Two TVBS polls five months apart show Shen cutting Chiang’s lead from 28 percentage points in May to only 8 percentage points this month. Another poll, commissioned by the Taipei Trust in Democracy Association and released on Tuesday last week, showed DPP Legislator Su Chiao-hui (蘇巧慧), the party’s candidate for New Taipei City mayor, having a 13.1 percentage point lead over her KMT rival, Lee Shu-chuan (李四川).

The loss of Taipei and New Taipei City would be catastrophic for the KMT. There are indications that some KMT figures have already started to think about the implications for their individual political prospects. It would certainly make sense of Han’s combative Double Ten National Day address last weekend, which last Sunday’s editorial (“Two different National Day speeches,” Oct. 11, page 8) called “a rant against the government” that was “strangely out of place for the context.”

In one interpretation, Han was positioning himself within shifting internal party dynamics, mending fences following his support — much-maligned within the party — of the government’s national defense proposals and his “dark forces” outburst against KMT legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi

(?) in August.

The hubris of the Han Wave made Han think he could pursue the presidency in 2020, before he had even served half a term as Kaohsiung mayor. Had he completed his full term, gained the experience in governing and established himself, he might have been prepared for running in 2024. Instead, he was defeated by a landslide in 2020, recalled months later and cast into the political wilderness, until being offered the speakership in 2024. This time he will have more experience and a higher political profile.

There are four main KMT figures who might seek the party’s presidential nomination in 2028: KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文), Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕), Chiang and Han.

According to an opinion poll released in mid-August by the online media outlet Z.Media (震傳媒), 20.4 percent of respondents said Chiang was their preferred KMT candidate for the 2028 presidential race, compared with 18.9 percent for Han, 16 percent for Lu and 3 percent for Cheng.

Cheng is not a forerunner for 2028, and if the KMT performs poorly in next month’s local elections, she would almost certainly face calls to resign, even more so if the party loses control of its traditional strongholds of the capital and New Taipei City under her watch.

Defeat next month would free Chiang up for a 2028 presidential run. While the Z.Media poll put him in front, his failure to secure a second term would mean losing control of the capital to the DPP, and Han would benefit from the damage that would cause to Chiang’s prospects. Lu is notoriously reticent about revealing her hand.

At the same time, the party’s loss of Taipei and New Taipei City would elevate the importance of Taichung and Taoyuan: If his colleague Deputy Legislative Speaker Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) is elected Taichung mayor, with Taoyuan Mayor Simon Chang (張善政) — Han’s running mate in 2020 — in place, Han would potentially have two influential allies to support him.

If he maneuvers himself into the right position, Han could even emerge from a potentially catastrophic result for the KMT next month into a relatively strong position for 2028.

In this light, last week’s National Day address could even be seen as laying the groundwork for riding a new Han Wave, with the benefit of having learned the lessons of the previous one.