Israel election paradox as parties winning no seats could decide who forms government

Israel's upcoming elections are poised to be dramatically influenced by smaller parties struggling to surpass the 3.25 percent voting threshold (AP)

Israel’s election could turn on a political paradox with parties that fail to win a single seat could determine who forms the next government.With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and the opposition short of a projected parliamentary majority, smaller parties hovering around the minimum vote threshold could decide the balance of power, according to an analysis by The Times of Israel.Israel’s recent electoral history offers a clear example of how parties failing to cross the threshold can reshape the political outcome. The country held five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 amid repeated failures by rival political camps to secure stable parliamentary majorities.According to The Times of Israel, Netanyahu’s bloc faces the risk of losing crucial seats if smaller right-wing parties fail to cross the electoral threshold.

The report highlights parties hovering around the 3.25 per cent mark, where even a small shortfall could leave their votes without parliamentary representation.The opposition faces a similar challenge, as some smaller parties are also struggling to secure enough support to enter the Knesset. However, the report suggests that the immediate risk of threshold-related losses could be greater for Netanyahu’s camp.

How Israel’s election system worksIsrael follows a nationwide proportional representation system in which voters elect party lists to the 120-member Knesset, the country’s parliament.Parties must secure at least 3.25 per cent of the valid vote to win seats. Those falling below the threshold receive no representation, and their votes are excluded from seat allocation.The prime minister is not directly elected. A party leader must assemble a coalition commanding the support of at least 61 lawmakers to form a government.This makes smaller parties crucial, as their success or failure to cross the threshold can alter the parliamentary arithmetic and determine which bloc has a path to power.How small parties could determine the election resultSmall parties could decide whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or the opposition gets enough seats to form the next government.Under Israel’s election rules, a party must win at least 3.25 per cent of the vote to enter parliament.

If it falls short, it gets no seats, and the votes cast for it do not count towards seat allocation. This can hurt the larger political bloc that the party could have supported.The 2022 election offers an example with the Left-wing Meretz and Arab-led Balad failed to cross the threshold and won no seats. Netanyahu’s bloc secured 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, giving him a parliamentary majority and allowing him to return as prime minister.