Why Trump is reviving 51st state rhetoric with midterms in less than 3 weeks

U.S. President Donald Trump is hitting the campaign trail as Republican candidates across the country face tough races in the midterm elections, and he has fallen back on a familiar target – Canada.

During a campaign rally in Arizona on Wednesday, Trump revived his rhetoric on wanting Canada to be “51^st state” of the United States.

“They’ll end up being the 51st state, because that’s the only way it works,” Trump told the crowd at his rally.

“We don’t need them, but they need us,” Trump said, adding that Canada would be “doing something just like Greenland.”

This was an apparent reference to an Arctic security agreement Trump signed with Denmark and Greenland last month, paving the way for more U.S. bases in Greenland and easing tensions over his repeated calls for the vast island to become part of the United States.

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Trump’s comments came as U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said American officials are “closely watching” Canadian politicians for signs of election interference ahead of pivotal midterm elections next month.

“Keep your nose out of American politics,” Hoekstra said during a podcast interview.

Hoekstra was referring to an anti-tariff ad paid for by the Ontario government and Industry Minister Melanie Joly’s comments that Canada’s counter-tariffs would target specific U.S. states.

Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Joly denied the claims that Canada was attempting to interfere in American politics.

“We’ll never do that and we’ll never accept that also being done to us in Canada,” she said.

Polling shows Republicans trailing in several key races, including in states bordering Canada where Trump’s trade war with Ottawa has become an election issue.

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“Canada is being put on the table,” said University of Ottawa political science professor Emily Regan Wills.

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Nowhere is that more evident than in Michigan, the heart of the American auto manufacturing sector, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers narrowly in most polls in their U.S. Senate race.

Rogers has attempted to put some distance between themselves and Trump’s trade policies, urging an end to the trade war with Canada.

He said in his debate with El-Sayed that he’d urged the White House privately to reach a trade deal with Canada and end the president’s tariffs. Canada is Michigan’s largest trading partner, as it is for many Great Lakes and Midwestern states.

Days before, Rogers unveiled a new ad in which he said, “We know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end the tariff war — now.”

That’s a noticeable departure from Rogers’ earlier, less specific statements praising Trump’s “America First” economic agenda while saying tariffs are not a “one-size-fits-all” solution.

“Americans in border states are used to being able to interact with Canada,” Wills said.

“Visiting, vacationing, shopping, that’s all being profoundly disrupted at this moment.”

In Maine, another state hit hard by Canada’s retaliatory tariffs, veteran Republican Susan Collins is trailing narrowly in most polls behind Democrat Troy Jackson.

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During a debate, Collins touted her ability to remove certain items from Trump’s trade war with Canada, including pulp, concrete and road salt. Jackson pushed back by quipping “we can’t eat road salt.”

1:55 Trump’s glaring unpopularity leads to campaign stops in states Republicans once dominated

While prominent Republicans in tight races seek to distance themselves from his rhetoric, Trump is doubling down.

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“I truly think this is psychological, this is not strategic. Donald Trump’s response to being told ‘no’ is to go harder,” Wills said.

For Republicans, Trump’s rhetoric might do more harm than good in border states.

“It would be great for other Republicans if he would stop talking about it. The issue is that nobody has yet discovered how to get Donald Trump to stop talking about something he wants to talk about,” she said.

“He doesn’t really have an ‘off’ button or ‘maybe that’s an inside thought’ button,” Wills added.

Trump’s own approval rating was at 37 per cent on Thursday, remaining steadily low for several months leading up to the midterms.

Trump’s renewed rhetoric around Canada’s sovereignty is likely intended to create a “rally around the flag” effect that is “supposed to make Americans feel embattled,” she said.

Whether that works is less clear.

The comments also come as U.S. inflation accelerated last month as gasoline and many other goods and services became more expensive. The consumer price index rose 3.7 per cent in September compared with a year ago, the Labor Department said Wednesday, up from 3.4 per cent in August.

Some experts suggest Trump may be trying to shift the burden of high prices from himself to other targets, including Canada, but it may not connect with the voters as it has in the past.

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“The American people are paying more and getting less because of the choices of Donald Trump,” said Todd Belt, professor of political management at George Washington University.

“You can’t out-message the economy. People get angry when you tell them that things are good and they know how much money they have at the end of the month,” he added.