Week 7 best bets: Browns keep stacking wins, two big-name running back under props to target
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Well, after two straight winning weeks, we came back down to Earth in Week 6. In two tight end props I liked, Tucker Kraft fell just short of hitting 40+ receiving yards, and Juwan Johnson laid a complete goose egg. The Patriots were up 10 late, but a Jets field goal meant New England didn't cover -7.5. While D'Andre Swift found the end zone to complete one leg of the parlay, Drake London didn't score. He now has the most receptions without a touchdown across the entire NFL.
We did hit on the Texans' money line over the Jaguars, so at least it wasn't a completely lost weekend, but it was a bad one for sure.
Let's make amends!
Browns ML at Titans (-125)
Somehow, the 4-2 Browns are only 1.5-point favorites at the 1-5 Titans. And how did the Titans get that win, you ask? Last week, the Colts completely melted down in every facet, including giving up a blocked punt for a touchdown and a 58-yard punt return. Indianapolis was cruising before that. The loss led to GM Chris Ballard being fired.
I just don't see the Browns doing the same. Deshaun Watson has come back down to Earth after a hot start, but this is a really good defensive team facing one of the league's worst offenses. I'll confidently take Cleveland to get to 5-2 and continue what has been the most pleasantly surprising start in football.
Daniel Jones 1+ interceptions (-119)
Daniel Jones has six interceptions in six games this year. Now he faces a ferocious Brian Flores defense that leads the NFL in pressure rate. Jones has a tendency to make poor decisions under pressure, and the Vikings have six interceptions this season, tied for the fifth-most in the league through six weeks, even though they've already had their bye.
Ashton Jeanty UNDER 49.5 rushing yards (-111)
Here are Ashton Jeanty's rushing numbers from the last two games:
- Week 5: 10 carries, 27 yards
- Week 6: 10 carries, 22 yards, 1 touchdown
That doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, even against a banged-up Rams defensive line. He also doesn't appear to inspire much confidence among his coaching staff. Jeanty's snap share has steadily declined this season. He was up around 80% Weeks 1-3, then down to 67% in Week 4, and then down again to the mid-50s last week. Mike Washington (43 yards) nearly doubled Jeanty's yardage total on one fewer carry last week, and he recorded a season-high 35% snap share. Even Dylan Laube has entered the fray in the past two weeks. Klint Kubiak notably split his backfield in Seattle last season, and it looks like it's trending that way in Las Vegas.
Josh Jacobs UNDER 47.5 rushing yards (-114)
Josh Jacobs is back after being removed from the commissioner's exempt list. While he is expected to suit up and play this week, I don't expect a huge workload or a ton of success for him. Remember, while Jacobs was on the exempt list (which he had been since the start of the regular season), he couldn't practice with the team, either. Should we really expect him to get a ton of touches?
Furthermore, the Packers have been completely unable to run the ball. Yes, Jacobs should help that slightly, but the Packers are 28th in yards before contact per rush. Jacobs could help the yards after contact per rush (the Packers rank 32nd there), but in his first game back, I'm fading him putting up substantial numbers. This is a team that ran for just 57 yards on 26 carries against the Cowboys' woeful defense last week.
I could see Jacobs making an impact Sunday and maybe even scoring a touchdown, something he's still really good at. But big rushing numbers? I doubt it.
Rams ML vs. Raiders AND Blake Corum 40+ rushing + receiving yards (-110)
I just cannot envision the Rams losing again. I know about all the Matthew Stafford problems. I know about all the injury issues. I just can't see it happening. They'll find a way.
Corum, meanwhile, has had back-to-back games with a touchdown and at least 50 yards from scrimmage. He provides more explosiveness than Kyren Williams does, and with the Rams lacking explosives through the air (and Davante Adams being out), Sean McVay could turn to more Corum.
With no Adams, the Rams will be in more 13 (one running back, three tight ends) personnel. In 13 personnel, Los Angeles has the third-highest yards per carry rate in the league, and when facing 13 personnel, the Raiders' defense allows 5.3 yards per carry, the worst in the NFL. Furthermore, with no Adams, the running backs should be even more involved in the passing game. Corum should have a solid day in a must-win game.
Season record: 13-17
Week 7 picks
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