The oldest mistake in statecraft

Diplomats are paid to say unpleasant things pleasantly. Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Jing Quan (井泉) has managed the opposite.

Asked on Oct. 15 about Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro Jr’s description of China as the region’s lone troublemaker, he called the remark nonsense, then observed that China “may easily win” against the Philippines, but declines to use force because it loves peace.

A threat dressed as a compliment is still a threat, and Manila heard it correctly. Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Maria Theresa Lazaro on Monday last week summoned Jing to express her concerns about the comments.

What followed was more revealing than the remark. The embassy took to Facebook to belittle Filipino legislators by name and accused them of sacrificing relations to personal ambition. When lawmakers moved to declare the ambassador persona non grata, the embassy replied: “Just do it.”

On Thursday the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs warned of further diplomatic action, and the embassy answered that it “will not remain silent.”

This is not a diplomatic mission. It is a troll farm with diplomatic plates.

Teodoro put the stakes plainly: The embassy has crossed from diplomacy into interference, and the 2028 elections are the target. He has a point. A mission that lists senators as enemies by name is campaigning, not representing. He also rejected the counsel of silence.

“If you give them leeway, they will only push further,” he said.

History supports him.

The claim of easy victory deserves scrutiny, and Jing’s arithmetic omits the Philippines’ position. Manila is bound to Washington by the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty. Its northern islands flank the Luzon Strait, the approach to Taiwan that any serious Chinese planner must worry about.

A war “easily won” would be fought in waters where the Philippine Coast Guard has spent three years publicizing every ramming and water cannon attack, so that the world’s press knows Second Thomas Shoal (Renai Shoal, 仁愛暗沙) by name.

Beijing has won plenty of confrontations against fishers and coast guard cutters. Winning against an alliance is a different proposition. The peace-loving pose is also hard to square with a regime that claims nearly the whole South China Sea and treats the sovereign nation of Taiwan as territory awaiting invasion.

A state that advertises its restraint while rehearsing its power is asking to be flattered, and Manila has declined. Even Beijing’s sympathizers in Manila reach for the excuse that the ambassador was misunderstood, which concedes that he spoke badly.

Pride goes before a fall, and the proverb is old because the pattern is. A nation whose foreign policy rests on bellicosity and the threat of invasion has mistaken noise for strength.

Clive Hazell is a Kaohsiung-based writer and educator. A 30-year-resident of Taiwan and Japan, he writes on geopolitics, culture and East Asia.