Why the war in Iran might cost Trump and the Republicans at the ballot box
When Americans head to the ballot box, it is usually domestic issues that are at the front of mind, not foreign policy. But this time, Americans are linking the high price of gas and diesel with the U.S. war in the Middle East.
The conflict has driven oil prices up and that's hitting Americans at the pumps
Willy Lowry · CBC News
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When U.S. and Israeli jets flew east on Feb. 28, striking hundreds of targets across Iran and killing much of the country's leadership, they also inadvertently catapulted the world into an oil crisis that persists today and that just might cost U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican colleagues during next week's midterm elections.
Historically, the midterms are seen as a referendum on the president and his party.
More often than not, the party that controls the White House loses ground in the House and Senate.
The polls currently predict Democrats taking control of the House, while the Senate remains too close to call. Republicans hold a four-seat majority giving them room to lose, while still retaining control of the upper chamber. This cycle, 33 seats are up for grabs, Republicans currently hold 20 of them, while Democrats hold the remaining 13.
When Americans head to the ballot box, it is usually domestic issues that are at the front of mind, not foreign policy.
Foreign policy "is very distant for people," said Clifford Young, chair of Ipsos Public Affairs. "Ultimately what they care about are their pocketbooks and how they get along in their day-to-day lives and the two things are often fairly separate in people's minds and voters' minds."
But Young says, this time, Americans are linking the high price of gas and diesel with U.S. actions in the Middle East.
Gas prices are shown at a gas station in Atlanta, Ga., on Friday. (Edgar Su/Reuters)
On Feb. 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel kickstarted their war against Iran, the price of oil was $67 US per barrel. By March 1 the price had jumped to $99 US per barrel and it has stayed pretty close to that for the eight months since.
That has caused the average price of gas in the U.S. to climb from $2.98 US per gallon to $4.25 US per gallon, according to data compiled by the American Automobile Association.
"These have been decisions that [Trump's] made on the foreign policy side that have significantly impacted Americans domestically and more specifically his political bailiwick, his own base," said Young.
"Trump made a decision that significantly eroded his political capital domestically."
Indeed, according to a Reuters Ipsos poll published earlier this month, 78 per cent of people surveyed blame Trump's policies for rising prices in general.
Supporters attend the rally for Paxton in Lubbock, on Tuesday. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)
The Republican and MAGA base previously rallied around Trump's "America First" agenda, which in part involved a promise to extricate the country from foreign conflicts.
At first, the administration said the war with Iran would only last four to six weeks. But despite an overwhelming military display, the U.S. has been unable to end it.
"It was a war of discretion, a war of choice, launched without any thought to the capacity of the administration's hand in order to reach its objectives," said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"It completely underestimated the capacity of the adversary to respond and escalate horizontally and weaponize geography, and to basically go after the vulnerabilities of the Straight of Hormuz and the Gulf states."
The war has become increasingly unpopular with Americans — according to the Pew Research Center, nearly two-third of Americans disapprove of it.
Fire and smoke rise from the Fujairah oil industry zone, caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defences, according to the Fujairah media office, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, U.A.E., on March 4. (Amr Alfiky/Reuters)
That survey reveals that while the conflict has been broadly unpopular from the start it has grown even less popular with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
Of course, Trump's foreign policy extends beyond the U.S. war with Iran, and he has seen other wins and losses. He recently helped to secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and brokered a fragile ceasefire between that militant group and Israel.
A resident stands at the site of an apartment building damaged during a Russian jet drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 12. (Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters)
And, in a daring military operation, U.S. forces captured Venezuela's longtime President Nicolás Maduro and flew him to the U.S. where he currently faces a slew of federal charges. Washington has subsequently been working closely with Maduro's Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez, who is now the interim president.
He has also had a fractious relationship with NATO allies including Canada, and has pivoted the U.S. away from Ukraine — recently lifting sanctions on Russia, in an effort to bring down the price of oil and diesel.
And yet, a recent poll by Marist/NPR/PBS News found that foreign policy overall was the top issue for only five per cent of Americans surveyed. Thirty-four percent said cost of living was the number one issue driving their vote.
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And that’s where we see the convergence — unusual for a U.S. election — of foreign policy and domestic affordability issues.
It is the war in Iran that is likely to cost Trump most. The question of affordability is front and centre this midterm cycle and the price of gas is a glaring reminder of Trump's decision to start a conflict that previous presidents had avoided.
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Willy Lowry is an award-winning correspondent for CBC News in Washington, D.C., where he provides breaking news and analysis across radio and television. Prior to that, he served as the senior U.S. correspondent at the National newspaper in D.C., where he covered the U.S. State Department, American foreign policy and its impacts on the Middle East and the wider world. Willy covered the Israel-Hamas war extensively, travelling to Israel and the occupied West Bank several times. He also covered the fall of ISIS in Syria. He started his career at CBC News in Montreal, where he worked his way up from intern to research assistant and eventually to video journalist.
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