Iran weighing options against US, Israel as nuclear talks stall, Israeli defense official says

Iran is weighing how to respond to growing US pressure as nuclear negotiations with Washington remain stalled, creating an increasingly complex regional situation, a senior Israeli defense official said on Friday.

"The Iranians are looking for tools within this campaign. They are asking themselves how they can get out of this situation. It is reasonable to assume that they are also discussing the possibility of influencing the elections in order to understand the other side," the official said.

The senior defense official said there had recently been a large number of unresolved incidents, some of which could potentially develop into attacks on the Israeli home front from a variety of directions, and not necessarily from Iran.

"There were many warnings and many nights when the system was occupied with clarifying the situation and raising and lowering the alert level. There were many nights of heightened readiness. Hezbollah? It definitely factors into Iran's calculations if Iran enters into a confrontation with Israel," the official said.

According to the defense official, the Iranians are constantly assessing the situation in the US and the extent of Washington's readiness to enter into a confrontation with them, and this affects Tehran's own assessment of the situation.

Economic pressure mounts on Iran

The official also stressed that conditions in Iran are deteriorating and that the effect of US sanctions can be clearly seen.

The number of tankers leaving the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz has been rising, and according to IDF data, an average of 30 to 40 tankers are now passing through each day. That figure reflects levels seen before the war. In other words, Iranian influence in the strait is declining.

The official also noted that the Iranian rial had reached a new low in recent days, with nearly 2.5 million rials now equivalent to one US dollar. At the same time, he clarified that Iran had not yet reached hyperinflation.

The official illustrated the economic situation by citing a critical article in an Iranian newspaper identified with the regime that compared the price of eggs in Iran with the average salary, adding that the cost of living in Iran was now "unbearable."

Compounding the economic pressure is what the official described as a US naval blockade of Iran that began this week. In addition to the sanctions, he said, the measure contains elements that are humiliating for Tehran because it prevents even family visits to neighboring countries.

As a result, the Iranians quickly approached neighboring countries and asked them to restore civilian flights. So far, according to the official, only Iraq has agreed, while there are currently no flights with Azerbaijan.

Israel prepares for risk of escalation

Israeli defense officials assess that Tehran is considering how to respond to the situation, what tools remain available to it, and what form its response should take. As evidence, they point to Iranian efforts to target vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that have so far failed.

The defense establishment believes Iran's range of options has narrowed significantly because of the naval blockade. This comes alongside Iranian attempts to carry out attacks abroad that have also failed, according to the assessment.

Israeli defense officials further assess that unless Iran attempts to break the blockade through a deliberate military move or reaches understandings with the US, it will be forced to contend with worsening domestic problems caused by the sanctions.

The IDF is therefore preparing for the possibility that an Iranian initiative could spiral out of control, such as a cruise missile striking a US vessel and causing fatalities, creating a situation in which it would be unclear how Washington would respond.

Israeli defense officials also assess that if the Iranians conclude that they are about to come under attack, or that the regime is losing ground in its confrontation with the US, they could potentially launch attacks against US assets in Jordan or Israel.

A senior official said the Iranians understand very well what the price of such a move would be, and that this is why they have not attacked Israel.