Korea’s OPCON, nuclear sub plans may stall during Trump’s remaining term, says ex-envoy

The Seo Hui naval submarine, the second vessel of the Jang Bogo-III Batch-II program. (Yonhap)

Korea is unlikely to make significant progress on its nuclear-powered submarine program or the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) during the remaining two years of US President Donald Trump’s term, according to Joseph Yun, a former US special representative for North Korea policy and former chargé d’affaires ad interim at the US Embassy in Seoul.

While core alliance issues, such as the stationing of the US Forces Korea and extended deterrence, will not be affected by the midterm election results due to bipartisan consensus, newly proposed security cooperation initiatives may struggle to gain momentum amid the changed political landscape, Yun said in an interview with Voice of America’s Korean language service released on Saturday. 

In particular, Yun pointed to the transfer of OPCON and the development of nuclear-powered submarines, both agreed upon by President Lee Jae Myung and Trump in 2025, as initiatives that could stall for the next two years if neither side provides sufficient momentum.

While Trump has approved the construction of nuclear-powered submarines, Korea and the US need to hold further consultations on specific implementation plans, discussing how nuclear fuel will be supplied and related legal procedures. 

The transfer of OPCON must also be assessed by Korean and US military authorities to verify the operational capabilities of the Korean military.

When commenting on the pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines and nuclear enrichment and reprocessing rights, Adam Farrar, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Economics who served as director for Korea on the White House National Security Council under the first Trump administration and the Biden administration, stated in a recent interview with the Hankyoreh that “the bureaucracy in the US doesn’t want to do those things.”

“Particularly on the reprocessing side, there are concerns about proliferation,” he said. 

“Every one of [these US enrichment] companies is telling the US government, ‘Don’t let the Koreans enrich,’” he added. “I’d be very surprised if we see progress on those nuclear issues.”