US allies fret over how Trump might play his Taiwan hand with Xi

TOKYO/TAIPEI: US allies in Asia are growing anxious that President Donald Trump may be tempted to soften Washington's support for Taiwan in return for an economic win with Beijing as he prepares to host Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week.

Concerns that Trump could make concessions on Taiwan have heightened since he described US arms sales to the democratically governed island claimed by China as a "negotiating chip" in May, and as he tries to shore up approval ratings dented by the Iran war.

Xi will likely press Trump on Taiwan during their expected summit on Sept 24, and even a subtle change in US rhetoric could embolden Beijing and risk the region's fragile peace, according to interviews with government officials, lawmakers and analysts in Taipei, Tokyo and Washington.

"There's a great deal of trepidation, particularly from our allies, about where our China policy is going to land," said Emma Chanlett-Avery, political-security affairs director for US-based think tank Asia Society Policy Institute.

"Any indication of a softness on Taiwan would be quite alarming," she added.

China has described Taiwan as the "core of core interests" in its relations with the United States and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.

China's foreign ministry and the White House did not respond to questions for this story.

Trump has said Xi has personally assured him that China will not attack Taiwan while Trump is in office. His predecessor Joe Biden repeatedly said the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked, while Trump has declined to say whether he would.

Speaking at a defence forum in Beijing on Tuesday, China's former envoy to Washington Cui Tiankai said "reunification" with Taiwan would bring stability that is "in the interest of the United States."

Getting Trump's ear

Ahead of the summit, the Taiwanese government has been clearly conveying its positions to the US side, Shen Yu-chung, a senior Taiwanese official, told reporters in Taipei on Monday.

"We hope ... there will be no situation that harms Taiwan," he said.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Tuesday he expected Xi to bring up Taiwan, but that Washington had repeatedly said its policy towards the island had not changed.

Japan's leader Sanae Takaichi – who angered Beijing by saying Tokyo could be drawn into a conflict over Taiwan last year – has also been trying to get Trump's ear ahead of his meeting with Xi, according to two Japanese government sources.

A senior foreign ministry official visited Washington last week to help try to secure a meeting, the sources said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. The United Nations General Assembly in New York early next week is the most likely venue for an exchange, they added.

Japan's foreign ministry declined to comment on trips by working-level officials and said nothing had been decided regarding contact between Takaichi and Trump.

Japan will "closely follow with great interest" the upcoming summit and believes it is important that US-China relations contribute to the "stability of the international community", the foreign ministry added.

Tokyo wants Trump to stick to established diplomatic language on Taiwan and avoid making it the focus of the summit, as it was when he last met Xi in Beijing in May, one of the sources said.

The biggest fear for Japan is that Trump signals a softer stance on Taiwan to secure Chinese commitments to buy US goods, an economic win he could sell to voters ahead of important midterm elections, two senior Japanese ruling party lawmakers said, requesting anonymity.

'World-changing conflict'

While Trump has cast his summitry with Xi as rebalancing trade relations between the two economic superpowers, he said the Chinese leader repeatedly asked him about Taiwan when they met in Beijing in May, including about arms sales and Washington's resolve to defend the island.

A US$14 billion US arms package for Taiwan has been awaiting Trump's approval for months. After the May summit, Trump said he was holding the package in abeyance and described it as a "very good negotiating chip."

Washington must now take Beijing's concerns about arms sales seriously after long brushing them off, Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University who advises China's foreign ministry, told the defence forum in the Chinese capital on Tuesday.

Beyond the arms, experts say that even a slight change of Trump's wording could embolden Beijing.

The US follows a "one China policy" under which it officially takes no position on Taiwan's sovereignty and acknowledges, but does not endorse, Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China.

Xi asked Trump's predecessor Biden to clearly denounce Taiwanese independence at a summit in 2023, though Washington refused. Trump's propensity to make off-the-cuff remarks is particularly worrisome given the sensitivity of this issue, the two Japanese government sources said.

The United States and other Western countries significantly underestimate the importance of Taiwan to Beijing, Malaysia's director general of national security, Raja Nushirwan Zainal Abidin, said during a visit to Washington this week.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which produces more than 90 per cent of the world's advanced semiconductors, would roil the global economy.

"It will change the world as we know it, and because of that we have to be very, very careful," Raja Nushirwan said.