Wall Street profits could exceed $90B if rest of the year tracks, NY state comptroller says

Following a record 2025 in securities profits from broker/dealer operations of NYSE member firms, New York City member firms' profits were expected to drop 30% Y/Y in 2026, but the reversion to historical norms didn't materialize, according to the New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli.

Instead, the industry's profits have, in the first two quarters of 2026, already passed the New York comptroller's projection for all of 2026. Those totaled $45.9B for H1 2026, a 51% increase from the same period in 2025 and the highest two-quarter result on record. If the current pace of growth continues, annual profits could exceed $90B in 2026, which would represent more than 38% growth from last year's $65.1B in profits.

Even with market volatility sparked by geopolitical conflicts, questions over the impact of AI, changing tariffs, and concerns about immigration policy and government funding, firms are continuing to record increases in all revenue lines except for commodities trading, the comptroller's office said.

"Wall Street is having an exceptionally strong year, fueled by a boom in artificial intelligence spending, increased merger and acquisition activity, and elevated trading volumes amid market volatility," DiNapoli said. "Barring a recession or major market disruption, strong profits should continue to provide an important boost to state and city revenue."

With the surging profits, the industry contributed at least $7.8B to New York City's budget in FY2026 (ended June 30) through business and personal income taxes, up almost 16% from the previous fiscal year. It contributed at least $26.3B to the state's budget in FY 2025-2026 via business and personal income taxes, up almost 29% Y/Y, the New York comptroller's office said.

The growth in the securities industry also fueled employment. Industry employment reached 207,400 jobs in 2025, some 7,000 jobs higher than the prior year. Preliminary data indicate that the industry is on pace to add 5,400 jobs this year.

The average annual salary in the city's securities industry rose to a record 561,770 in 2025, up 11% from 2024. The 2025 bonus pool also hit a record of $49.2B, up 9% Y/Y, with further growth expected in 2026 due to robust profit growth.

In the past year, the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index (BKX) rose 13.7%, lagging the S&P 500's gain of 15.0%. The sector outperformed financial industry stocks. By comparison, the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) fell 0.4%