SMU-Louisville offers plausible ACC title game juice: Why winner has inside track to play Miami for CFP berth

The ACC's best shot at being a two-bid league in the CFP will be partially solved this weekend

Sep 16, 2026 at 10:10 am ET • 5 min read

It's only Week 3 with a limited sample size, but the ACC Championship race is already materializing for the challengers behind Miami at the top of the conference.

And we're of the belief the league could put two teams in the College Football Playoff this season for the second time in three years.

The CFP selection committee will shift its early-season attention to Saturday's 16th-ranked SMU at No. 23 Louisville showdown, a matchup that provides an early pathway to a league championship game appearance for the winner.

College football odds, lines, schedule for Week 3: LSU favored at Ole Miss, SMU-Louisville offers ACC intrigue

Brad Crawford

Both nationally-ranked squads are dangerous offensively with play-making quarterbacks and each has a favorably slate the rest of the way — Louisville doesn't play another opponent inside the top-25 while SMU's only such content in conference play is a battle with 25th-ranked Virginia on Oct. 17 coming off an open date.

Jeff Brohm is trying to avoid going 0-3 against Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs since SMU joined the ACC.

"Got a great opponent coming in here in SMU that we have not beat since we've played them," Brohm said this week. "So credit to them for playing good football, coaching well, putting a good plan together, executing, doing all those things. They're playing very well again right now." 

Remaining schedules

SMU	Louisville	Miami
at Louisville, Saturday	vs. SMU, Saturday	at Wake Forest, Friday
vs. Missouri State, Sept. 26	vs. Wake Forest, Sept. 26	vs. Central Michigan, Sept. 26
Boston College, Oct. 3	at NC State, Oct. 3	at Clemson, Oct. 3
vs. Virginia, Oct. 17	vs. Florida State, Oct. 9	vs. Florida State, Oct. 17
vs. California, Oct. 24	at Syracuse, Oct. 17	vs. Pittsburgh, Oct. 24
at Syracuse, Oct. 31	vs. Stanford, Oct. 31	at North Carolina, Oct. 31
vs. Virginia Tech, Nov. 6	at Georgia Tech, Nov. 7	at Notre Dame, Nov. 7
vs. Wake Forest, Nov. 14	at North Carolina, Nov. 14	vs. Duke, Nov. 14
at Notre Dame, Nov. 21	vs. Pittsburgh, Nov. 21	vs. Virginia Tech, Nov. 21
at Stanford, Nov. 28	at Kentucky, Nov. 28	vs. Boston College, Nov. 28

Inside track to ACC Championship Game

No disrespect to ACC teams not named Miami, SMU or Louisville, but those are the three who have looked the part through the first two weeks of the regular season. The Hurricanes will be favored in every ACC game from here out, perhaps by double digits, while SMU and Louisville each paid handsomely this offseason for portal-infused rosters to fill holes coming off successful campaigns.

We've had SMU in our CFP projections since the spring and that hasn't changed early on the season. The Mustangs won with a C effort despite several mistakes in the opener at Florida State and found an offensive rhythm in last week's first home. Get past SMU and Rhett Lashlee could be playing for his second trip in three years to the CFP if the Mustangs are able to run the table in conference play.

SMU does play Notre Dame on the road later this fall, but a loss to the Irish will not be fatal in the CFP conversation. If the Mustangs get to the ACC title game and say, lose to Miami, and 11-2 finish should be good enough to get one of those final at-large bids regardless of what happens in the Big Ten and SEC.

Louisville's margin for error is a bit more thin. The only way the Cardinals can guarantee themselves a spot in the CPF conversation in late November is by winning out, beginning Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite at home.

As it stands, Miami and SMU are in the best position to make the ACC a two-bid league in the CFP later on this fall, based on current ranking, overall talent and remaining schedule. The conference did the Hurricanes a solid with three home games to end November following Miami's biggest game of the year — at Notre Dame — in Week 10.

Duke, Virginia lurking

Defending ACC champion Duke is right where it wants to be entering conference play, fresh off a road win at Illinois with San Jose State transfer quarterback Walker Egets enjoyed his first three-touchdown performance at his new school. Anchored by the most-experienced offensive front in the league, Virginia impressed in the opener against NC State and is using a physical-first mindset, again, to its advantage under Tony Elliott.

The Cavaliers' trip to SMU in mid-October could be a CFP eliminator of sorts for the loser. Virginia gets unbeaten West Virginia this weekend, another non-conference opportunity to flex for the ACC against a Power Four foe.

"Rich (Rodriguez) is very intense, demanding and fast-paced," Elliott said of the Mountaineers' head coach. "He coaches very hard, but loves you just as hard. I'm excited about the opportunity."

The Blue Devils play Virginia and Miami on the road during the second half of the season, so that portion of the ACC standings will sort itself out. Unlike last season, Duke's end-of-season stretch is quite challenging and tiebreaker scenarios aren't as favorable this time around.

League's new tiebreaker policy

If last season's stunning conference championship pitting Duke and Virginia was any indication, attempting to project who will reach the finale in a few months is a fool's errand, but of course, we're doing it anyway considering the stakes this weekend in Louisville.

The ACC updated its conference title game tiebreaker rules this offseason to ensure a similar fiasco doesn't unfold in 2026 after multiple teams outside of the College Football Playoff selection committee's top 20 reached the final.

Last year's chaotic five-team tiebreaker outcome nearly left the ACC out of the CFP altogether after Miami — who didn't appear in the league title game — earned the last spot in over Notre Dame. 

A summary of the new ACC tiebreaker procedure  can be found in full here, but the main point is the league's aim to simplify the process while also providing the most likely path that allowis the two best teams to play in the ACC Championship Game. 

Duke got there in 2025 and won despite a 7-5 overall record, which included a 6-2 mark in conference play without a single win over a nationally-ranked opponent. Despite winning the conference, the Blue Devil and then-quarterback Darian Mensah — who's now at Miami — were left out of the CFP selection committee's final rankings.

Head-to-head is a card you always want to have in your favor and if the Mustangs and Cardinals each finish with one conference loss, Saturday's showdown is paramount toward getting the nod.