Kenya Met Forecasts Showers and Thunderstorms in Several Counties

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a 24-hour weather forecast warning of light to moderate showers and thunderstorms in scattered parts of the country.

The forecast, issued on Monday, September 14, covers the period up to 9pm on Tuesday, September 15, with rainfall expected in several counties, particularly across western Kenya and parts of central and coastal regions.

According to Kenya Met, showers are expected in parts of Kericho, Kakamega, Vihiga, Nandi, Kisumu, Baringo, Bomet, Homa Bay, Nakuru, Narok, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Nyandarua, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Kiambu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Nyeri, Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi.

The department also forecast strong southerly to southeasterly winds of more than 25 knots (12.5m/s) over parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Kitui counties.

Evening showers and thunderstorms expected

Residents in the affected areas can expect partly cloudy conditions in the morning, followed by sunny intervals in the afternoon.

However, weather conditions are expected to change in the evening, when light to moderate showers and thunderstorms could occur in a few places.

The counties specifically highlighted for the evening rainfall include Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira and Nairobi.

Residents, particularly those living in low-lying areas, have been advised to remain alert to the possibility of thunderstorms and localised flash flooding.

Temperatures to remain varied

Temperatures are expected to vary considerably across the affected counties.

Migori is forecast to record the highest daytime temperature at 32°C, followed by Kisumu and Homa Bay at 31°C.

Busia is expected to reach 30°C, while Bungoma, Kisii and Nyamira are forecast to record maximum temperatures of 29°C.

Nairobi is expected to reach a high of 26°C, while Kericho is forecast to record the lowest maximum temperature among the listed counties at 25°C.

Overnight temperatures will also differ across the region. Bomet is expected to record the lowest minimum at 12°C, followed by Vihiga at 14°C and Kericho and Kakamega at 15°C.

Homa Bay is forecast to have the warmest overnight conditions, with temperatures expected to remain as high as 21°C. Siaya and Migori are both expected to record minimum temperatures of about 19°C.

Bungoma is forecast to record temperatures ranging from 16°C to 29°C, while Kisii and Nyamira are expected to range between 15°C and 29°C, and 17°C and 29°C, respectively.

Busia is expected to record temperatures between 18°C and 30°C.

Strong winds expected in northern and coastal areas

Besides rainfall, Kenya Met has warned of strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots in parts of northern, eastern and coastal Kenya.

The areas likely to experience the strong winds include parts of Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Kitui counties.

Residents and motorists in areas affected by the strong winds have been advised to exercise caution, particularly in exposed locations.

El Niño concerns remain

The latest forecast comes amid continued government preparations for the possibility of an El Niño event later in the year.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has previously placed the probability of a strong El Niño developing at 81 per cent, with a 97 per cent likelihood that its effects could extend into early 2027.

A national risk assessment by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) has identified several potential hazards associated with the expected weather patterns, including flash floods, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks and damage to critical infrastructure.