Mint Explainer | Why a super-charged El Niño is a postcard from our future

This year’s El Niño will be a ‘postcard from our future’ bringing temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver 20 years into the future, warned the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.

The ongoing El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean is gaining strength faster than any previously recorded event. The event is likely to peak between November and January and countries across the world are likely to be most impacted in 2027.

For India, El Niño’s first kill was the south-west monsoon, causing the widest rainfall deficit in 11 years. Two major states, Maharashtra and Karnataka, have announced a drought so far. The coming months could see more risks unravel: a warmer winter, higher food prices and water scarcity next summer. Mint explains.

How is this El Niño shaping up?

El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-usual waters in equatorial Pacific Ocean. The event influences global weather patterns by bringing heavy rains and floods in some parts, and droughts and wildfires in others, worsening the impact of human-induced global warming. In 2026, El Niño established itself in June and has been gaining strength at an unprecedented rate. El Niño is expected to reach a very strong intensity, peaking towards the end of this year, with impacts continuing well into 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned in an update in early September.

“This exceptional El Nino demands exceptional preparation and response,” Celeste Saulo, the WMO chief, said, adding that the current event is the most challenging in United Nations body’s 76-year history.

What are the temperature anomalies in the Pacific?

As per a widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperatures in a particular region of the Pacific, temperatures rose from 1.5° Celsius above normal during May-July, to 2.2-2.6°C above normal by mid-August. Note that an El Niño is announced when temperatures rise by 0.5°C; when the temperature anomaly is over 2°C, it is categorized as a ‘very strong’ event.

By mid-September, the anomaly was already over 3°C. This is unusual because such a spike happens when a ‘very strong’ El Nino is at its peak, usually towards the end of the year, around November-December. The 2026-27 El Niño is likely to surpass temperature anomalies in previous ‘very strong’ years (2015-16 and 1997-98) as it is expected to strengthen further in the coming months.

How has the monsoon been impacted in India?

The June-September monsoon season has seen a deficit of 12% compared to the 50-year average (as of 26 September). About 38% of India’s area has seen a deficit of 20% or more. Planting of crops like rice, cotton, sugarcane and maize has lagged last year’s acreage, and yields are likely to be impacted as well. This has led to food prices firming up. So far, two major states—Karnataka and Maharashtra—have announced a drought and are implementing relief measures.

Retail food inflation quickened to 5.95% in August from a low of 2.13% in January. Data from the consumer affairs department show that retail prices of common grocery items like rice, sugar, sunflower oil and onion have seen a year-on-year spike of 7.5%, 21%, 19% and 101%, respectively (as of 26 September).

What are the risks that lie ahead?

The most immediate risk is a subdued kharif harvest beginning in October, which can put India’s ambitious ethanol blending policy to the test. Sugar, maize and rice-all biofuel feedstock crops are facing production risks and elevated prices due to deficit rains. The winter crop season, beginning in October-November, is at risk due to lower-than-usual water storage levels in reservoirs, moisture stress in soil following a deficient monsoon, and a likely warmer-than-usual winter. This may impact planting of food crops like wheat, mustard and chickpeas. Wheat yields are at heightened risk if the summer sets in early next year and terminal heat affects yields ahead of harvest; in 2022, a record heatwave in March-April severely hit production, forcing India to ban exports.

Will there be water shortages and heat waves?

A dry and warm winter followed by a scorching summer can lead to severe water shortages in parts of India. This happened in 2015-16, the previous ‘very strong’ El Niño year, when the Indian Railways was enlisted to supply water to parched areas. In addition, water and feed shortages coupled with heatwaves can impact livestock mortality and dairy production, which will show up in higher protein and milk prices. This year’s El Niño will be a ‘postcard from our future’ bringing temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver 20 years into the future, warned the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago in a report on 23 September.

India could see an additional 15,800 heat-related deaths within the next six months, as per the report, with deaths projected to rise with the advance of the summer of 2027.

About the Author

Sayantan is a National Editor at Mint. As a part of its Long Story team, he writes on food and nutrition, agriculture, rural economy and climate change. His work is a blend of ground reportage and analysis where he unpacks news and trends from India’s hinterlands.<br><br>He also co-authors a fortnightly newsletter ‘Climate Change and You’ with a belief that how different sectors of the economy, and we as a species, shape and are shaped by the unfolding climate crisis, is a defining story of our times.<br><br>Before joining Mint in 2014, Sayantan worked as a correspondent and photographer with Down to Earth, an environment fortnightly, covering eastern Indian states. There he wrote on mining, environment, forests, tribes and farming. He’s been a journalist for 17+ years, most of it at Mint where he learnt how to tell human interest stories dispassionately.<br><br>Before joining journalism, Sayantan worked as a researcher at multiple think-tanks and at a non-profit, specializing in rural development and finance. Sayantan holds a Master’s and M.Phil. in Economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.<br><br>If you have a comment or a tip to share, he’s all ears at sayantan.bera@livemint.com.