Pollsters missed the mark again — but this time, it wasn't Republicans they underestimated

Pollster analyzes midterm election results and Democratic gains

Pollster Justin Wallin joins 'Fox & Friends First' to analyze the significant midterm election results as Democrats take control of the House and Senate. Wallin breaks down key races, including James Talarico defeating Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate showdown.

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In the weeks leading up to Election Day, President Donald Trump repeatedly railed against public opinion polls that pointed to a potential blue wave for the Democrats in the midterms.

"I think it’s fake polls," the president argued. "A lot of the polls are rigged."

It was an argument repeated by other top Republicans.

"The polls are all wrong all around the country," House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized Sunday at a Trump rally in Iowa. "I'm telling you, they're undercounting Republicans because Republicans are not participating in these polls anymore."

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House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks as President Donald Trump listens during a campaign rally at the Five Flags Event Center, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, in Dubuque, Iowa. (Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo)

While public opinion polls have a history over the past decade of undercounting GOP voters — especially MAGA supporters — this time, pollsters say Democratic support, rather than Republican turnout, was underestimated.

It was Democrats.

"Polls probably, on average, undercounted Democrats significantly," veteran pollster Chris Anderson, the longtime Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, said.

Anderson, pointing to the massive blue wave that allowed Democrats to decisively recapture the House and Senate majorities in the midterms, told Fox News Digital, "This is sort of a seismic election and you can’t model for a seismic election. We definitely didn’t undercount Republicans, that’s for sure."

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Daron Shaw, a veteran GOP pollster and the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, emphasized, "If we’re talking about the direction of the polls, they were clearly correct."

But Shaw added "we probably underestimated Democratic vote share by a couple of points."

Shaw highlighted that "directionally, we knew heading into Election Day that Kansas was a dog fight. We knew that Texas was probably shifting blue. That was just something that people had trouble getting their heads around but the data were pretty clear on that. I guess on Texas, the magnitude was surprising."

Pollster David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, agreed that "in general" there was "a slight undercount" of Democrats in public opinion surveys.

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He noted that polls also undercounted Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, where the Democratic candidates both won by larger-than-expected double-digit margins.

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"We were low on the margins of victory," Paleologos told Fox News Digital. "We were all undercounting Democrats."

And pointing to the longstanding GOP case that MAGA voters are undercounted, Paleologos said, "I think to be fair going forward, it can't be a one-sided question anymore."

Paul Steinhauser covers the national campaign trail from coast to coast for Fox News