El Niño rundown: from first warnings to a 451,000-death projection

El Niño has gone from an early-warning forecast to a genuinely global story, with new research now projecting it could contribute to as many as 451,000 deaths worldwide.

Here’s how we got here, and what it means closer to home.

HOW THIS EL NIÑO ACTUALLY DEVELOPED

A weak La Niña event evolved to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026.

By May 2026, Columbia University’s Climate School reported the pattern was “rapidly transitioning” to El Niño. 

NOAA’s own modelling in late May suggested development was likely by the July-through-September peak of the Pacific hurricane season.

Since then, forecasters have consistently strengthened their language.

As of September 2026, NOAA puts the chance of a “very strong” El Niño event at greater than 90% for the Northern Hemisphere’s fall and winter.

Only three events this strong have ever been recorded in the satellite era: 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.

WHAT HAS ACTUALLY HAPPENED SO FAR

The projected death toll comes from a report released this week by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, estimating 451,000 deaths globally attributable to El Niño-driven extreme heat. 

Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are expected to see the highest additional heat deaths, tens of thousands each.

In the US specifically, researchers project an additional 3,500 heat deaths between September 2026 and February 2027.

Risk is currently highest in September itself.

This follows a record-hot summer that’s lingered into an unseasonably warm start to autumn.

Beyond heat, El Niño has already been linked to real, specific events.

AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill and Arizona State University meteorologist Randy Cerveny partially attributed a 2026 Grand Canyon flood to El Niño-intensified monsoon rainfall.

That flood killed at least three hikers.

Panama and El Salvador have both declared emergencies over El Niño impacts.

Separately, Panama Canal fees hit a record high in August, driven by El Niño-related drought combined with shipping disruptions from the Iran war.

Israel’s weather service also warned of an “unprecedented” rainstorm tied to the pattern in late August.

WHY SOUTH AFRICA SHOULD BE PAYING ATTENTION

Closer to home, the outlook is more familiar territory.

El Niño typically brings below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures to Southern Africa, and the South African Weather Service’s own seasonal forecast points to exactly that pattern for October to December 2026.

The last very strong El Niño, in 2015-16, triggered what authorities called the country’s worst drought in 23 years.

There’s a genuine silver lining, though.

Above-normal rainfall during the 2025-26 season improved dam levels and soil moisture across many summer-rainfall areas, giving

South Africa a real buffer heading into this event, even if that buffer alone won’t guarantee food or water security if conditions turn severe.

It’s genuinely sobering to watch a weather pattern most people barely think about translate into a projected death toll this large.

Whatever happens next, this is clearly a story worth continuing to follow closely, both globally and right here at home.

Have you noticed any early signs of El Niño’s impact where you live yet?