World Rugby No 1 ranking on the line in Baltimore

The Springboks and All Blacks will have more than bragging rights at stake when the two rugby giants meet in Baltimore on Saturday, with the World Rugby No 1 ranking also on the line.

South Africa currently sit at the summit of the World Rugby rankings with 94.33 rating points, while New Zealand are second on 91.90.

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Permutations

A win by 1 to 15 points by the All Blacks will see them pick up 1.24 points – and see the Springboks lose 1.24 points – which would be enough for New Zealand to regain the No 1 spot, 93.15 to 93.09.

A victory by 16 points or more by the All Blacks will see them pick up 1.86 points – and the Springboks lose an equivalent amount.

That would give New Zealand 93.77 points and South Africa 92.47.

A draw in Baltimore would see South Africa lose 0.24 and New Zealand gain 0.24 points, but wouldn’t be enough for the Springboks to lose their No 1 ranking.

A Springbok win by any margin would see Rassie Erasmus’ side extend their lead over the All Blacks.

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Highly anticipated finale

The rankings battle adds another layer to an already highly anticipated finale to the four-Test Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series.

South Africa head into the clash at M&T Bank Stadium holding a 2-1 series lead after victories in Cape Town and Johannesburg followed New Zealand’s opening win at Ellis Park.

The Springboks will also be wary of a revamped All Blacks side.

New Zealand coach Dave Rennie has recalled Richie Mo’unga at flyhalf for his first Test appearance in three years, while Codie Taylor takes over as captain following Ardie Savea’s injury. The All Blacks have made several other changes to their forward pack.

What’s at stake?

Springbok captain Siya Kolisi knows exactly what is at stake.

“We don’t want to draw the series,” Kolisi said ahead of the match, with South Africa determined to finish the four-Test battle with a victory.

The Baltimore showdown will also mark the first time the Springboks and All Blacks meet on American soil. M&T Bank Stadium is expecting a major crowd for the historic occasion, with the match forming part of the build-up to the United States hosting the 2031 Rugby World Cup.

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For South Africa, however, the equation is simple: win in Baltimore, lift the series trophy and remain the world’s No 1-ranked team.

For New Zealand, victory would not only level the series but potentially open the door to another change at the summit of world rugby.

The Test kicks off at 23:00 (SA time).

Prediction

South Africa to win by 12 points

Teams

South Africa

15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche

Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok

New Zealand

15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan de Groot

Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett

Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant referees: Matthew Carley (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (England)