5 things I know, 5 things I think after 5 weeks of college football: Missouri's CFP push; the next Indiana is?

Five weeks into the college football season, anxiety is running high across most fan bases.

The sport has rapidly evolved from a pure pastime into a high-stakes business, leaving many fans trying to adapt to this new era. We are surrounded by nonstop roster turnover, unprecedented coaching changes and looming external developments -- from potential congressional action to a College Football Playoff expansion to 24 teams as early as next year.

Change is rarely popular, and the uncertainty ahead makes it even harder to swallow.

My aim isn't to stoke anxiety, offer false reassurance, or promise clear skies ahead. If you follow the game closely, the present reality is already obvious. The fact is, college football's future is unpredictable, and anyone telling you they know what the future holds is likely holding something else behind their back. 

Will Congress pass national regulations to oversee college sports? 

Probably not. 

Is another round of conference realignment on the horizon when TV contracts start expiring in 2030? 

Maaaaybe. 

Is The College Football Insiders the best podcast covering the sport? 

Some people think so. 

Will Texas win the SEC championship? 

Whoa, Bevo, slow down.

Reporters act as guides through the uncertainty, using their notebooks and pens to illuminate hidden truths, validate our expectations, or reveal insights we didn't even realize we were seeking. Join me in the light as I empty the reporter's notebook and share what I have gathered after countless phone calls and text messages, a few flights and a handful of nights spent collecting Marriott points. Turns out, college football is business and a pleasure.

Here are five things I know for certain, along with five thoughts on where things stand after five weeks of college football.

5 things I know

Why Michigan's Bryce Underwood is struggling

Kyle Whittingham was hired to rebuild Michigan's culture of accountability, but he probably didn't count on his new star quarterback, Bryce Underwood, struggling this much. 

At best, the nation's No. 1 prospect in the class of 2025 hasn't improved since his freshman season and, at worst, has regressed in first-year offensive coordinator Jason Beck's scheme. Underwood is completing less than 60% of his passes with five touchdowns against four interceptions -- a higher interception rate than last season, when he threw 11 TDs against nine INTs. He was 10 of 21 for 101 yards and two interceptions Saturday in the 20-14 loss at Minnesota, the Gophers' first home win against the Wolverines since 1977. 

Underwood's primary weakness is a lackluster ability to process plays and read defenses, especially after the snap, according to a source familiar with the Wolverines' quarterback room. If that's the case, that's not something you fix in the middle of a season -- one that is dangerously close to careening off the rails after two losses and a shoulda-been loss to Western Michigan.

Underwood is flashy and doesn't lack confidence inside and outside the locker room, where he was voted team captain before the season. In the summer, he predicted at a camp that he would become the "best player to ever come out of Michigan." He isn't close -- not yet, at least.

We went in depth on Underwood and Michigan's struggles Monday on The College Football Insiders.

Underwood ranks 16th in the 18-team Big Ten with 176.2 passing yards per game, and his passer rating isn't much better at 15th. His Pro Football Focus passer grade (61.9) ranks 191st out of 273 quarterbacks. He's lost two of three fumbles across five games, ranking 260th among quarterbacks.

Murmurs of Underwood falling short of expectations date back to last winter. He struggled in the spring under Beck's tutelage, but concerns about the Wolverines' depth existed even before that. After Whittingham arrived at Utah, the Wolverines reached out to Utes quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin in January to gauge their interest. Dampier and Ficklin confirmed Michigan's interest during an interview with CBS Sports last week. Both opted to return to Utah, where they now share snaps in a two-quarterback package for the undefeated Utes.

How Michigan approaches the quarterback position in the portal come January will be a story to watch.

Missouri's playoff push could happen without Ahmad Hardy

Missouri has emerged as a CFP contender without its top running back, and it may have to maintain that status without him.

Ahmad Hardy remains on the sideline, and a timeline for a return remains unclear to coaches on Mizzou's staff, sources told CBS Sports. Hardy underwent emergency surgery after he was shot in the upper leg at a concert in Mississippi in mid-May. He has yet to play this season after breaking onto the scene in 2025, rushing for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Tigers.

Hardy has attended games on Mizzou's sideline, wearing street clothes and conversing with teammates and coaches, but he hasn't practiced as he continues to recover. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz previously said Hardy would need to participate in at least two weeks of practices before playing in a game.

Jamal Roberts has carried the load in Hardy's absence and enters Week 6 ranked sixth nationally, averaging 121.2 yards per game. He ran for a career-high 211 yards and three touchdowns Saturday in the Tigers' 45-17 win against Florida.

CFP plans still muddy, but the money is not

Conference executives expect to hear news on the financial front as ESPN's exclusive negotiating window with the College Football Playoff closes this Friday.

Momentum is building around the idea that supporting an expanded 24-team playoff will necessitate bringing in multiple television networks. In that case, ESPN and FOX are expected to emerge as the primary candidates to acquire the core broadcasting rights, with sublicensing opportunities that could be farmed out to other networks.

This financial push is largely fueled by leadership's desire to replace revenue lost from the planned elimination of conference championship games, which could take effect as early as the 2027 season. To bridge the gap, power conference officials are targeting more than $250 million in supplemental funding -- with one source telling CBS Sports the figure is closer to $300 million. Additionally, conferences are set to lose millions in revenue from separate activations and premium events at their conference championship games.

CFP executives are not scheduled to meet again until January, but an ad hoc meeting is expected after news from ESPN arrives. A deadline for a decision on whether to expand the CFP from 12 teams is set for Dec. 1.

The man behind Darian Mensah's hot start

Darian Mensah isn't invincible after all. Miami's quarterback had his "worst" performance of the season Saturday in a 41-13 road win against Clemson. He completed 18 of 27 passes for 227 yards and one touchdown while also running for 27 yards and another score.

Mensah was on a record-breaking pace during the Hurricanes' 4-0 start, becoming the first FBS quarterback in 30 years with more touchdown passes (14) than incompletions (12) through four games. 

He's now completing 84.2% of his passes, which leads the nation, with 15 TDs with zero interceptions. He also has the country's top passer rating (212.3). Miami's offense is among the most explosive and prolific in the country, scoring 49.6 points and averaging a nation-best 8.2 yards per play.

We've run out of superlatives to describe Mensah, who led Duke to an ACC title last season, so I asked his coach to help fill in the gaps.

He "can always improve," Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson told CBS Sports. "He has complete control of the game, takes care of the ball, is laser accurate, throws [an] elite deep ball."

But that's not all. Mensah's "extreme courage in the pocket" has been apparent early in his Miami career. More importantly, "you can coach him hard," Dawson said. "[He] doesn't get rattled."

Miami's quarterback enters a bye week with the second-best odds (+700) to win the Heisman Trophy, but could make up ground on Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith (-110) if he maintains the elite efficiency and remains undefeated before a premier showdown with Notre Dame on Nov. 7.

Florida, Georgia ready to go big with rivalry game

The Florida-Georgia rivalry game will be played outside Jacksonville for the first time since 1995, but the good news is it won't be long before the game returns to north Florida -- and with a significantly higher payout structure for the schools.

The Bulldogs and Gators will meet on Halloween day inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta this season before a one-year pit stop in Tampa next season. A new four-year contract with Jacksonville worth $41 million per school begins in 2028, nearly doubling the previous contract at the NFL stadium.

The two-year absence from Jacksonville, along with new premium seating inside the $1.4 billion renovation of EverBank Stadium, "reset that market for what that game's value is," Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin told CBS Sports.

Both schools are expected to earn at least $7.5 million apiece from the game in Atlanta this year. The schools will earn at least $10 million each season in Jacksonville beginning in 2028, with the payout increasing to a guaranteed $10.5 million in the final two years of the contract.

In the revenue-sharing era, every dollar -- or $10 million -- counts.

5 things I think

The Cignetti Blueprint provides mixed results

Curt Cignetti revitalized Indiana by bringing in a handful of talented players from his previous job and landing a veteran quarterback from the transfer portal. Administrators across the country took notice and began devising similar plans when the coaching carousel started spinning last winter.

After all, if it works at Indiana, why can't it work here? Schools then quickly discovered the carousel is more like a roulette wheel, and not every gamble pays off.

Still, the first-year success stories across college football are eye-opening. Nine of the 17 new FBS head coaches are ranked or receiving votes in the AP or coaches' polls, and seven are inside the top 25 in at least one poll entering Week 6. That's an incredible success rate.

Three of those top-25 coaches brought a wagon full of former players to their new schools: LSU's Lane Kiffin, Oklahoma State's Eric Morris and UCLA's Bob Chesney. Then there are the others who were hired away from smaller programs, hoarded their former players and are now struggling to keep their heads above water.

Arkansas' Ryan Silverfield, Auburn's Alex Golesh and Penn State's Matt Campbell have each lost at least two games, and their offenses rank in the bottom half of the FBS as we approach midseason.

Penn State and its 24 Iowa State transfers tumbled out of the top 15 of the AP poll following back-to-back losses, including a 34-13 beatdown at Northwestern last week. 

Auburn QB Byrum Brown, who followed Golesh from USF, leads the SEC with seven interceptions and ranks 11th in the SEC in passing. 

Arkansas' three losses have come by an average of 29 points, and the Razorbacks are not expected to be favored in another game.

The next Indiana might be in the same conference

Perhaps we don't need to look far to find the "next" Indiana. Northwestern coach David Braun presented his case July 30 at Big Ten media days. We should have been listening.

"We have expectations to do it better than we've ever done it before," Braun said. "Big Ten Championship? Why not us? Hosting a College Football Playoff game at new Ryan Field? Why not us? Aspire to chase down a national championship? Why not us?"

Northwestern is inching closer to the Top 25 with a 3-1 start, including a 400-yard rushing performance in a win against Penn State, and a close loss at defending national champion Indiana. The Wildcats unveiled their incredible $875 million stadium, the new Ryan Field, in that 34-13 win last Friday against Penn State, and the program has doubled down in the NIL era. 

The Wildcats are also must-see TV. Chip Kelly has supercharged the offense with creative formations and a rehabilitated Aiden Chiles, throwing and running the ball.

Everything is coming up purple in Evanston, and Northwestern is in position to capitalize.

The SEC has created a new problem

I like to stretch my opinions beyond the breaking point in the weekly Overreactions column, but the SEC really should be concerned about the upper half of its conference blowing each other out week after week.

The SEC practically begged the CFP to introduce a new strength-of-conference metric 16 months ago at its annual spring meetings. They handed out pages of documents showing how and why the SEC is the most competitive and deepest conference. In August, they got their wish, and the CFP is set to introduce SportSource Analytics' new SOC metric to help contextualize team schedules for large conferences like the Big Ten and SEC.

Critics, including those in the Big 12, believe the metric will only benefit the Big Ten and SEC. 

If so, this week would have been a great case study. I'm curious where Ole Miss and Florida would slot in the CFP Selection Committee's top 25 this week after both suffered a blowout loss in the span of seven days. Unfortunately, we'll never see the new strength-of-conference metric because the data the CFP provides to its committee members is proprietary and not for the public.

Maybe the SEC's round robin of blowouts is just a blip, but if it becomes a trend, the new metric will be scrutinized. We get the first CFP Top 25 on Nov. 3. 

James Madison is the new cradle of coaches

What's in the water in Harrisonburg, Virginia?

The last three head coaches at James Madison are still undefeated, comprising an incredible 20% of the remaining unbeaten teams in the FBS. Former Florida coach Billy Napier has found new life as "Sun Belt Billy" at James Madison, starting 5-0 with 63 new players on the roster. Indiana's Curt Cignetti is 4-0 and a reigning national champion.

The most surprising of the trio might be No. 21 UCLA's Bob Chesney, who has the Bruins ranked in short order before a critical road trip to No. 13 Oregon this week.

Two former JMU coaches also own the country's longest regular-season winning streaks: Cignetti (19) and Chesney (15).

Georgia is No. 1

As the number-crunching chief of CBS Sports' Power Rankings, I placed Texas at No. 1 this week. As an individual with free will, without data weighing on my mind, I ranked Georgia No. 1 in my top 25.

I have been lucky enough to see three elite teams in person so far this season -- Texas, Ohio State and Georgia -- and the Bulldogs were the most complete team when I got a good look up close. They won't wow you with explosive plays or a defense that smothers the life out of quarterbacks on every snap, but they're downright persistent in showing you they are better than you in all facets.

The Bulldogs lean on teams until they quit, and though Vanderbilt weathered the storm better than anyone last week, the dam always breaks. Georgia may not be exploding for huge plays the way recent national championship squads did, but they mirror Nick Saban's mid-2010s Alabama p powerhouses in remarkable detail. Kirby Smart also appears noticeably sharper and underwhelmed during postgame evaluations this year.

"Next week in the SEC, guys," Smart said after the 38-13 win Saturday against Vandy. "Guess what? Week after that one, there's another week. I mean, they're all big. Not one of them's not big. This one was big. It wasn't big to y'all. It was big to us because I have respect."

Smart seems fully aware of the special potential growing in Athens.

But allow me to hedge a bit before I fall in love with the hedges, because traveling to Alabama this week is a longer limb. Smart is 0-2 in Tuscaloosa, where Georgia gave up 41 points in both games, and Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell has emerged as a legitimate Heisman contender in Ryan Grubb's offense. So, I caution: don't be shocked if the Bulldogs lose Saturday.

But also don't be surprised if Alabama succumbs to Georgia's depth.