Melaka polls: Seat deals remain the wild card [WATCH]

KUALA LUMPUR: With less than two weeks before nomination day for the Melaka election, the battle lines are taking shape as Barisan Nasional, Pas and Pakatan Harapan signal their readiness to contest.

But despite preparations being well underway, uncertainty over political cooperation and seat negotiations means the final electoral landscape may not be clear until nomination day.

BN and Pas have indicated that their candidate lists are ready, while PH has finalised seat allocations among its components, PKR, DAP and Amanah.

The question now is whether the parties will stick to their respective plans or strike last-minute deals to avoid multi-cornered contests.

Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said early candidate preparations demonstrated organisational readiness and allowed parties to assess candidates' acceptance among voters.

"Announcing candidate lists is not merely about who will contest. It is also closely linked to seat negotiations and political cooperation.

"The real challenge is ensuring that seat allocations are accepted by the parties and their supporters," he told the New Straits Times.

Tawfik said BN held a clear advantage as the incumbent government, backed by its established grassroots network and election machinery.

Having won 21 of Melaka's 28 state seats in 2021, BN is seeking to defend its majority under caretaker Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh.

Tawfik believes a proposed BN-plus arrangement involving Pas could further strengthen the coalition's prospects.

"I expect BN-plus, with Pas contesting under the BN symbol, to win at least 24 seats, including three additional seats in Bemban, Sungai Udang and Bukit Katil."

However, Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia political scientist Dr Syaza Shukri said the political landscape remained fragmented, with parties seemingly preparing to contest independently.

"There are still many unanswered questions. We may have to wait until nomination day to see how political cooperation takes shape."

Syaza said BN and Perikatan Nasional currently appeared to have an advantage over PH, but questioned whether BN could increase its seat tally.

"I don't think BN can win more seats. In 2021, it won several constituencies by narrow margins. BN's strength in Melaka is not as dominant as in Johor."

She added that even cooperation between BN and PN might not increase BN's tally if some constituencies had to be allocated to its partners.

For Rauf, the election will also test whether his administration's grassroots engagement can translate into electoral support.

His "Wakil Rakyat Untuk Rakyat" programme, aimed at engaging the public, has covered all 28 constituencies, attracting more than 100,000 participants and recording 5,170 complaints for follow-up action.

Rauf has cited an 80 per cent approval rate for the initiative.

Meanwhile, PH faces the challenge of defending its five seats, while Bersatu's prospects could be affected if Pas reaches an agreement with BN.

Tawfik cautioned that poorly coordinated seat arrangements could lead to multi-cornered contests and split votes.

He said candidate acceptance, grassroots machinery, local issues and voter turnout would be key to the election outcome.

For now, the parties may have their candidates ready, but Melaka's battle lines remain unsettled.

Whether BN can defend or expand its majority will depend on the alliances forged, candidates fielded and their ability to turn grassroots support into votes.