Trump, Xi, Takaichi and tale of headlines

The main front-page headline of the Nikkei on Thursday said that Japan and the US closely coordinated on their response to China. Just one day later, the headline read that China urged the US to make concessions on Taiwan.

Placed side by side, the headlines neatly capture the two competing voices on the Taiwan Strait issue that now stand before US President Donald Trump.

The first voice is from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Two days before Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), Takaichi spoke with Trump on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

The two leaders reportedly exchanged views on China, economic security and other issues, and affirmed the close cooperation of their countries. Takaichi emphasized that holding the meeting at that time was itself a way of demonstrating to the world the strength of the US-Japan alliance, highlighting the increasingly close connection between the alliance and peace in the Taiwan Strait.

The latter voice is from Xi.

Two days later, Xi met with Trump, calling on the US to “oppose Taiwan independence” and handle the Taiwan issue cautiously. What Beijing is seeking is no longer merely Washington’s existing position of “not supporting” Taiwan independence, but a further step toward explicitly opposing it.

First Takaichi, then Xi. The diplomatic sequence is noteworthy.

It was no coincidence that Takaichi met with Trump before Xi. After her meeting, she said that the timing was due to the upcoming US-China summit. In other words, before Trump and Xi sat down at the negotiating table, Japan had already taken its security concerns to Washington.

The reason behind this is not difficult to understand. If conflict were to erupt in the Taiwan Strait, those immediately affected would not only include Taiwan, but also Japan’s Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands, US forces stationed in Japan, maritime shipping routes and semiconductor supply chains.

For Japan, peace in the Taiwan Strait is not a matter to be watched from the sidelines — it is directly tied to its own national security.

The significance of the Nikkei report on Thursday about US-Japan coordination only truly came into focus when the following day’s headline was published. The concerns Japan had raised the previous day had, as it turned out, become real issues on the US-China negotiating table.

Xi’s demand that the US “oppose Taiwan independence” underscores exactly why Takaichi had to take proactive measures. Trump’s response has not yet been clarified by Washington, but at least before Beijing made its demands, Tokyo had already communicated its position — Japan’s voice had been heard loud and clear.

The US and China can negotiate, and Trump and Xi can strike deals, but if peace in the Taiwan Strait becomes a bargaining chip between great powers, Taiwan would not be the only one to bear the costs — Japan and the wider Asia-Pacific region would be affected as well.

The two contrasting headlines in the Nikkei made clear that the two meetings — first Takaichi, then Xi — were not simply items on the US’ diplomatic calendar, but part of a larger diplomatic power struggle that has profound implications for security in the Taiwan Strait and Japan.

Wang Hui-sheng is a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.