Elif Nur Turhan vs. Alycia Baumgardner: Picks, analysis, predictions, more

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  Andres FerrariNov 6, 2026, 07:41 AM ET

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  Andres Ferrari is ESPN.com's boxing and MMA senior editor.

Alycia Baumgardner is moving up in weight to challenge IBF lightweight champion Elif Nur Turhan in a 10-round fight with three-minute rounds Sunday at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET, prelims on ESPN+ at 5 p.m. ET).

Baumgardner (18-1, 7 KOs), who holds the WBO, IBF and WBA junior lightweight titles, will fight at lightweight for the first time since August 2021. She is 12-0 with one no-contest since losing to Christina Linardatou in July 2018.

Turhan (14-0, 8 KOs), who has been a professional boxer for just over four years, has been on an impressive run over the past year. She won the IBF title with a dominant fifth-round TKO victory over Beatriz Ferreira in December 2025, and followed with decision wins over Taylah Gentzen and Gabriela Tellez in 2026. Sunday will mark her first fight with three-minute rounds, while it will be Baumgardner's third.

The matchup presents an interesting clash of styles. Can Baumgardner use her boxing skills and footwork to close the distance and avoid Turhan's power, especially her looping right hand? Or can Turhan keep Baumgardner at the end of her punches and land her power shots?

Former WBA and WBC featherweight champion Soledad Matthysse, who has fought both Baumgardner and Turhan, along with current WBO, WBA and WBC junior middleweight champion Chantelle Cameron and former title contender and current boxing commentator Avril Mathie, break down the matchup, explain how the fight could unfold and share their picks.

Editor's note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Chantelle Cameron, WBO, WBA and WBC junior middleweight champion

The matchup

I think it is a great matchup. I'm actually very, very excited for this fight because it's two completely different styles and I think they're just going to jell very well. I don't think Alycia moving up in weight is going to be any trouble. I think she's got the frame for it, she's got the power, so I can't see the weight being any issue. But she is going in against a big hitter. That's why I find it so interesting because she's stepping up her weight and doing it against the biggest hitter in the division.

How does Baumgardner win the fight?

Alycia has to box. She has to get in close so Elif can't get her power shots off and she's got to rough her up. If Alycia stays on the outside, she's at risk of getting caught with big, looping hands. So she has to stay close and make sure Elif can't swing from her toes. That way, it's going to take away all the power.

I think work rate is going to be a massive factor, especially over three-minute rounds. We haven't seen Elif in three-minute rounds, and what's going to make it interesting is that extra minute. Alycia's experience is greater than Elif's, and I think Alycia will know how to win.

How does Turhan win the fight?

We've not seen Alycia have her chin checked properly, so we don't know how she can take a punch. I think she'll take it well, but Elif seems to have very unusual power.

A key for Elif will be the jab. She needs to use her reach and tire Alycia out, make Alycia work. She should keep Alycia at long distance so she can get her on the end of power shots.

I feel like the three-minute rounds are going to favor Elif because she's going to have more chances to land shots. This is what makes a fight so interesting.

X factor

Three-minute rounds. They allow you to not go 100 miles per hour for every second of every minute of the round. You have to navigate it. Your pace can go up and down and you can have breathers when you need them. I prefer this because it gives you more time to look at your opponent, pick your shots better and not be in so much of a rush. In two-minute rounds, everything's just a rush and you don't really get your technique in rhythm because you're just trying to score as many points as you can in those two minutes.

Prediction: I think it's a toss of the coin, but if I'm going to go for a winner, I am going to go with Alycia by decision.

Soledad Matthysse, former WBA and WBC featherweight champion, who has fought both Baumgardner and Turhan

The matchup

Alycia is a very good boxer. She moves her feet very well and works well at a distance. If she can keep the fight at that range, she can make it a very comfortable fight for herself. Elif is a strong, aggressive fighter who is going to have to come forward and make things happen, because Alycia doesn't like that kind of fight. In my experience fighting Alycia, she doesn't like getting into exchanges. So I would say Elif could make things difficult for Alycia if she goes after her and forces that kind of fight.

How does Baumgardner win the fight?

She needs to box, move around the ring and not let Elif get close. If Alycia can fight the way she's most comfortable fighting, she can win. Her footwork is her biggest strength. She also needs to work her jab to keep Elif at a distance.

Alycia is a very good boxer who works extremely well at distance. She is very dangerous and she's strong. If I were Alycia, I'd make sure to cut off the ring and take away Elif's escape routes. I'd work the body and throw overhand rights because those punches can get through.

When you watch Turhan, she can look a little unorthodox and somewhat reckless with her punches. Sometimes she'll attack and drop one hand or the other, leaving herself exposed.

How does Turhan win the fight?

If she comes forward and puts pressure on Alycia from the fourth round onward, she could make things difficult for her. My approach when I fought Alycia was to attack her. I caught her with a right hand in the first round, and from that point on, Alycia started backing up. I think she began to respect my power a little more.

I've also seen Alycia in other fights, and she's been caught by those overhand rights that Elif throws very well. Elif is strong, she's got heart and she has a lot of determination and grit.

X factor

Fighting at 135 pounds. Alycia hasn't fought at 135 in a long time (Baumgardner was 132¾ when she fought Vanessa Bradford in August 2021). The extra weight could affect her footwork and mobility. She might feel a little heavier on her feet.

Prediction: It's a very close fight. It could be extremely competitive. If I look at strength, I'd lean toward Elif. But when it comes to technique and boxing ability, I favor Alycia. I really can't pick one.

Avril Mathie, former bantamweight and junior featherweight title contender and current boxing commentator

The matchup

Baumgartner is going up in weight, so it's going to depend on if she can make Turhan respect her power. She has really good distance control, really good timing, but Turhan comes forward and has managed to dismantle even the most technically sound boxers. If you are just running for an entire fight against someone that's coming forward at you very aggressively, throwing big punches and has knockout power, the question is, is Baumgardner's power going to translate?

Baumgardner probably could win just by hit and run, hit and run, hit and run. But if that's her game plan, she's going to be doing a lot of running, so she's going to have to have solid conditioning in her legs.

I think the first few rounds will show which direction the fight is going.

How does Baumgardner win the fight?

She has to time Turhan. She must land shots that are going to make Turhan respect her power, like good counters that make Turhan think twice about just rushing with big punches. Turhan's not the most technically pretty fighter. She leaves openings, and if Baumgardner can take advantage and land good power shots, it's going to make Turhan hesitate. Kind of like what we saw with Canelo Alvarez and Christian Mbilli. I think Baumgardner also needs to take a lot of angles. If Turhan's not respecting her power, Baumgardner is going to have to move, punch and move, punch and move. Don't stay in one spot for three seconds.

Baumgardner has the ability to get in and get out. I think she's faster than Turhan and she has good accuracy. If she chooses to go on the inside and make it a war, you can have good defense on the inside, but sooner or later something's going to get through and Turhan just has that power. So I don't know if that's necessarily a good spot for Baumgardner to stand and trade. If she can get in, land her punches and then get out fast, she cannot stay in there and be greedy. I wouldn't say an inside fight is Alycia's best bet.

How does Turhan win the fight?

She should do what she does -- apply pressure, try and cut her off, invest in the body early to affect Baumgardner's movement. Use a lot of feints to throw off Baumgardner's timing. And throw combos, not just rely on that one big knockout punch that she has, stay busy, outwork her.

Turhan surprises me in every fight. Technically, she's not the prettiest fighter. So when I look at her, I think, how can no one beat her? She leaves so many openings. She does things that your coach will tell you, "That's wrong, don't do that, you're going to pay for that. That's not going to work for you." But when she does it, she makes it work. She's just an absolute beast.

When Turhan knocked out Beatriz Ferreira, I was like, "Holy s---! Wow, this girl's the goods." And that's the thing; she doesn't have to be technically the prettiest or the best. She just finds ways to win. And that's what's so exciting about this fight, because Baumgardner could be winning, but at any moment Turhan could completely flip that with a few big shots. She's so beautifully unpredictable that it's amazing.

X factor

Stamina. Women usually fight two-minute rounds, but ever since we first walked into a boxing gym, we've been training for three-minute rounds. The boys train for three-minute rounds, and that's just what the timer in the gym is set on. So I don't doubt Elif's fitness to be able to carry out the three-minute rounds. But it'll be interesting to see if her power wanes because of the extra conditioning necessary. Maybe Alycia will run circles around her and tire her out, because she's not used to that third minute. I'm sure it will have an impact in one way or another, but I am not sure how it will go.

Prediction: I don't have a pick because there are so many ifs, which will be answered for me once the fight goes a few rounds. If it's a tap-and-move fight and Alycia can get in, get out and not get hit too much, I think Alycia can win on points. But if Turhan manages to get a few knockdowns, she's likely going to win the fight, maybe even by knockout. I don't think she's going to win by points without knockdowns. I think Alycia probably has the edge in that department.