UFC Fight Night predictions -- Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott: Fight card, odds and expert picks for Edmonton

The pair of veteran welterweights collide in a pivotal fight on Canadian soil

Oct 16, 2026 at 12:29 pm ET • 4 min read

Captain Canada comes home with his self-anointed "Maple Leaf Militia." Mike Malott makes his seventh straight start in Canada on Saturday, headlining in his home nation in back-to-back fights. This time, he wants Joaquin Buckley's No. 10 welterweight ranking at UFC Fight Night in Edmonton.

This is make-or-break for Buckley (21-8). "New Mansa," a reference to the historical Mali Empire ruler Mansa Musa, seemed to be on his own conquest after he knocked out former title challengers Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington. Buckley has always shown potential; look no further than his iconic spinning back kick KO against Impa Kasanganay. Unfortunately, dominant grappling losses to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady completely halted his momentum. His confidence remains intact, even if outside belief is dwindling, as he defends his spot in the welterweight Top 10 this weekend.

"I thought I was very, very, very prepared for Sean Brady. I thought I was, to be honest, and Sean Brady came in and did his job," Buckley told CBS Sports. "But I can't be concerned about what the other man is going to do. I just have to put myself in a position where I'm always on the offensive. And a great offense is a great defense."

Malott (14-2-1) has a very unique role in the UFC ecosystem. He's essentially become the North Star for a Great White North sorely in need of it. It's been nearly four years since Malott has fought outside of Canada. His first main event, which took place in April, saw him knock out and retire longtime contender Gilbert Burns. If Malott can stop Buckley, who is two years younger than him despite being the UFC veteran, he'll be on a collision course with the division's top names.

"There are definitely things we saw in studying him that we believe we can take advantage of in all aspects of fighting," Malott told CBS Sports. "I don't love scripting a fight. I'm more focused on preparation than prediction... Man, fighting is chaos. Preparing the skills for whatever could arise, going in there and jamming, feeling it out, and taking where I feel right. I've done that pretty much every time, and it's worked well for me."

The co-main event has even more immediate title implications than the main event. The women's flyweight division is radically changing after Valentina Shevchenko vacated her title earlier this year due to injury. Natalia Silva defeated Wang Cong to become the new champion at UFC 332. That ticks off Erin Blanchfield. Long, labeled a future title challenger, Blanchfield believes she deserved the opportunity that ultimately went to Cong. A statement win against Jasmine Jasudavicius is paramount this weekend, especially with Alexa Grasso's resurgence and Shevchenko's inevitable return.

It's Canada vs. the world at UFC Fight Night. All but one of the 13 fights scheduled feature a Canadian in one corner. Among them is Mandel Nallo, a vicious striker who was putting a hurting on Jai Herbert before getting caught. The biggest betting favorite among the home athletes is Melissa Croden (-300), defending her No. 15 women's bantamweight ranking.

Let's take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

Favorite	Underdog	Weightclass
Mike Malott -135	Joaquin Buckley +114	Welterweight
Erin Blanchfield -325	Jasmine Jasudavicius +260	Women's flyweight
Cristian Perez -340	Kyle Nelson +270	Lightweight
Kyle Daukaus -185	Marc-Andre Barriault +154	Middleweight
Louis Jourdain -180	Timmy Cuamba +150	Bantamweight
Mandel Nallo -285	Nate Landwehr +230	Lightweight

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17 | Start time: 8 p.m. ET (Main card), 5 p.m. (Prelims)
Location: Rogers Place -- Edmonton, Canada
TV Channel: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as low as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott: There are serious questions about Buckley's defensive grappling. That cannot be denied. But I'm not sure Malott, despite his grappling trophies, can capitalize as Usman and Brady did. Buckley showed great wrestling defense against Colby Covington and has been competing in Real American Freestyle. He hasn't had a good run there, but he's diligently patching that hole. It's more complicated on the feet. I believe Malott, the former striking coach at Team Alpha Male, is the better technical striker even though he lacks Buckley's flashiness. Malott will have early success, but it's the late game that worries me. Malott's loss to Neil Magny taught him to pace himself. How that translates to five rounds, however, is still a mystery. By contrast, we've seen Buckley winging punches at Usman in the fifth round of an exhausting fight. Buckley could start taking over partway through Round 3, if the fight lasts that long. Buckley's chin is far from foolproof, but his defensive sensibilities have improved drastically over the years. If this fight goes long, which I'm predicting it will, Buckley should sneak ahead and even stop an exhausted Malott. Pick: Buckley via KO, Round 4.