Russia expected to intensify hybrid war on Europe

Just a few months ago, Russia's war was an distant reality for many people in Europe outside of Ukraine. If Russian drones occasionally entered the airspace of countries like Poland or Romania, even official statements seemed strangely dismissive and abstract. Even after a Russian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in the eastern Romanian city of Galati in late May this year, many EU and NATO representatives hesitated to accuse Russia of intentional action. At most, there was discussion of hybrid warfare.

The situation has changed radically since the summer. Drone overflights have become almost daily in certain parts of central and southeastern Europe, and there have even been crashes and explosions, particularly in countries bordering Ukraine. Alerts are becoming more frequent, with authorities increasingly having to close airspace or suspend operations at airports, as unauthorized flights are detected. Russia has been bombing border crossings, infrastructure and trains in Ukraine, but very close to other borders. Acts of sabotage are also increasingly common.

For the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova and Romania in particular, the war has long ceased to be "hybrid." More and more, politicians in these countries are saying that Russia is acting deliberately.

Lessons from Latvia: How to deal with Russian hybrid threats

Drones violate Moldovan and Romanian airspace

This became evident this week in an unprecedented manner. Moldova recorded four drones entering Moldovan airspace, two of which exploded in Moldovan territory. Wreckage of another was also found. The country's northern airspace was closed temporarily.
Two drones also violated Romanian airspace; with one crashing near the northern town of Solca. A nearby border crossing with Ukraine a few dozen kilometers away was closed as a result. NATO aircraft were scrambled near the Danube Delta.

The scrambling of NATO aircraft has become more common in response to Russian air attacks in Ukraine.

In Poland, NATO fighter jets were scrambled twice in response to Russian attacks near the border with Ukraine. Two Polish border crossings were evacuated after a fire broke out at a Starlink ground station near the village of Wola Krobowska, 40 kilomters (ca. 25 miles) south of the Polish capital Warsaw, on Wednesday night. The station is used to route internet traffic through Poland to Ukraine.

On the same day, a Russian Mi-8 helicopter violated Polish airspace and remained there for 42 seconds according to the Polish military.

Polish Prime Minister Tusk says Europe needs to prepare

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk spoke very bluntly in Krakow on Thursday and said that Russia was refining its "disgusting forms of pressure" and Poland must be prepared for them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin "wants to exhaust Ukraine by destroying its industrial and energy infrastructure, but he also wants to exhaust Europe," Tusk said. He added that there was a suspicion that the fire at the Starlink ground station had been deliberate.

Earlier this month, Tusk had already warned the Polish parliament that there might be Russian drone and even missile attacks against those who supported Ukraine.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu also reacted very strongly on Thursday, saying that Russia's war was a danger to all of Europe and reasserting Moldova's support for Ukraine.

In Romania, reactions were less clear. Defense Minister Radu Miruta said that not more than a "diplomatic protest" was needed, though he acknowledged that the drone that had crashed in Solca had new technical features, which suggested it could be a newer type of Russian jet-powered drone.

In New York on Wednesday, in his address to the United Nations General Assembly, Romanian President Nicusor Dan had said: "We are in the fifth year of the illegal, unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression waged on a large scale against Ukraine by a permanent member of the Security Council." He had added that as the "EU member state with the longest border with Ukraine, Romania has directly felt the effects of this war through repeated violations of our airspace."

And he too reasserted support for Ukraine: "We have said it before, and we say it again: Romania will stand with Ukraine and its people, who are acting in legitimate self-defense, for as long as it takes."

Attacks on western Europe from the Mediterranean?

Meanwhile, there is growing speculation that Russia could expand its war to Western Europe. On Thursday, the Spanish newspaper El Mundo published information about a CIA report warning that Russia could be preparing drone attacks on Italy, France and Spain. The attacks could be launched from international waters in the Mediterranean and from vessels that were part of Russia's shadow fleet.

There has been no official confirmation so far. French President Emmanuel Macron said that that the CIA had not informed France of this information, but he did say that the possibility Russia could launch an attack against Europe was "plausible."

At a press conference in Denmark on Thursday, politicians and military officials warned that Russia was expected to intensify its hybrid war against the West and NATO in the coming months. The situation is currently the most serious since the end of the Cold War," said Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus.