Inflation has risen again: Here’s what South Africans can expect to pay more for

South Africa’s annual inflation rate has climbed to 4.5%, with sharply higher transport costs putting renewed pressure on household budgets.

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) released its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Wednesday, showing that annual consumer inflation increased from 4.4% in August 2026 and 4.3% in July.

The CPI also increased by 0.4% between August and September, after remaining unchanged between July and August. This latest increase means inflation has now risen for two consecutive months.

And while 4.5% may sound relatively small, it does not mean that everything South Africans buy has become 4.5% more expensive.

Instead, the CPI measures the average change in the prices of a basket of goods and services. Some categories are rising considerably faster than the headline inflation rate, while others are barely increasing, or are actually becoming cheaper.

What is driving inflation?

Transport is currently the biggest problem for consumers. Stats SA recorded 10.8% annual inflation for transport, contributing 1.5 percentage points to the overall 4.5% inflation rate.

Housing and utilities followed, with inflation of 5.2%, contributing 1.3 percentage points. Insurance and financial services recorded inflation of 5.4%, contributing another 0.6 percentage point.

The transport figures are being driven largely by fuel.

Stats SA said the fuel price index increased by 6.2% between August and September and was 27.9% higher than a year earlier.

Petrol prices were 25.0% higher year-on-year, while diesel was a staggering 46.0% more expensive than a year earlier.

That has also filtered through into other forms of transport.

Passenger transport inflation reached 12.3% in September, with airfares up 18.6%, long-distance bus fares up 14.1% and minibus taxi fares up 13.8% year-on-year. Courier services increased by 6.8%.

For motorists, the impact is fairly obvious: filling up the car costs considerably more than it did a year ago. But the effects don’t stop at the petrol station.

Higher fuel and transport costs can feed into the price of delivering goods, running businesses and moving people around the country. This can eventually put pressure on the prices consumers pay for a wider range of goods and services.

There is some good news at the supermarket

One of the more positive aspects of the latest inflation figures is that food inflation remains relatively low.

Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation increased to just 1.2% in September, from 1.1% in August and 0.9% in July.

Meat inflation slowed to 0.7%, its lowest annual rate since March 2025. In fact, some beef products were actually cheaper than a year earlier, including stewing beef, beef mince and steak.

Cereal products were also in annual deflation, with prices 1.9% lower than a year earlier. Maize meal was 8.6% cheaper year-on-year.

This means the latest inflation increase isn’t being driven by a broad-based surge in grocery prices.

Rent increases are also easing

Housing and utilities remain one of the largest contributors to inflation, but there is some relief for tenants.

Stats SA said inflation for actual housing rentals slowed to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2026, from 4.1% in the second quarter.

Rental inflation was 4.0% for flats, 3.9% for townhouses and 3.8% for houses. This is below the overall CPI rate of 4.5%.

However, housing and utilities as a whole still recorded inflation of 5.2%, meaning households are continuing to face higher costs across this category.

What does 4.5% inflation ACTUALLY mean for South Africans?

For households, the biggest takeaway is that the cost of living is still increasing, but not evenly across the board.

Someone who drives a lot will likely feel the impact much more strongly than someone who works from home and has limited transport costs.

Similarly, a household spending a large portion of its income on insurance, housing or utilities may experience a higher effective increase in its monthly expenses than the headline CPI figure suggests.

For example, if a household’s monthly expenses were R20 000 a year ago, a simple 4.5% increase would mean roughly R900 more per month to buy the equivalent basket of goods and services.

But real households don’t spend money according to the national CPI basket, so the actual impact will differ from person to person.

The September inflation figure also does not capture the full impact of the latest fuel shock.

Nedbank had forecast inflation rising to 4.8% in September, largely because of higher fuel costs. While the actual figure came in lower at 4.5%, the bank warned that rising fuel prices could continue feeding into inflation.

The Reserve Bank has also said it expects inflation to remain elevated into 2027, largely because of fuel and services inflation, although it expects inflation to return to its 3% target towards the end of 2027.

In other words, South Africans may not see immediate relief simply because September’s inflation figure was only slightly higher than August’s.