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Monday, October 5, 2026

What we learned from Wales' Nations League window

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In the immediate aftermath of the Denmark defeat, Bellamy had the new four-game window on his mind.

The former striker insisted the idea made "no sense" and suited the bigger nations, some of whom – such as Jurgen Klopp's Germany – named two squads for the four games.

Any hopes of extended time with the squad to make a coaching impact on the training pitch evaporated amid the reality of the travel and recovery between games.

And the fear that an untimely injury to a key player would see them miss four games rather than the two they would have previously was proven to have foundation when Harry Wilson and Joe Rodon were deemed unfit before a ball was kicked.

It would have been a problem in the past during the peaks of Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey and the like, but is even more so now.

Throw in the intensity with which Bellamy wants to play, and the drop off in energy was evident after a relatively promising start against Denmark.

"I felt we were a little bit flat, not as intense as we wanted it to be," reflected midfielder Jordan James. "That was expected after a really tough game the other day."

The issue goes beyond the pitch with a few too many empty seats on Sunday night's game for anyone's liking.

There was some hope among Football Association of Wales officials that the additional fixtures would create further momentum in the window, but the draining impact of cost and travel for fans seemingly took its toll – and will hit the revenue.

Wales' issue in all aspects is that they have no option but to get used to it.

Euro 2028 qualifying – and the chance of playing in a major tournament on home soil – will adopt the same format for games next September and October.

It has highlighted a problem for Bellamy that seems difficult to solve.

"I look at the players who came off the bench; Wes Burns plays in League One, Mark Harris plays in League One and Josh Sheehan has played for years in League One," summed up former Wales striker Iwan Roberts.

"That is the problem: when the starting 11 is not working, Craig Bellamy looks over his shoulder, and it's not nice to say, but he's looking at League One players to try to make the difference."

He added: "We just haven't got the strength in depth to make the impact that you need in games when we haven't got the players that were out injured in this international break."

Already without several key figures, David Brooks - who has not started a league game for Bournemouth this season - was also forced to withdraw midway through the camp due to injury to further limit Bellamy's options.

Fresh from his terrific display in which he netted Wales' opener and won the free kick for Neco Williams' stunning second, Dan James did not feature against the Danes on Sunday.

Kieffer Moore was also not introduced until late on with the score at 1-0 to Brian Riemer's side. It brings us nicely to the next point...

The win over Norway – coupled with their defeat by Portugal on Sunday – means Wales are still third heading into the final games, courtesy of the head-to-head nature of this competition's tie-breakers.

Over the previous three Nations League campaigns combined, teams that finish bottom of a League A group have an average of 2.92 points after their six games.

Wales already have three points, and they still have to play Norway in Oslo and Portugal in Cardiff in November.

Before the current international camp even started, Bellamy spoke about targeting third place.

That would give Wales a chance of avoiding being relegated to League B and it would also improve their seeding for the Euro 2028 qualifying draw.

So what about teams who finish third in League A?

In the 2020-21, 2022-23 and 2024-25 campaigns combined, teams finishing third in League A groups have ended with an average of 6.42 points from six games.

It means Wales would realistically need one more win, or maybe two draws, to stand a chance of finishing third.

Even if they finish fourth, the tweak to the format means that only the two worst-ranked bottom sides go down automatically, with the other two heading into a play-off against a League B runner up.

With Serbia, Turkey and Czech Republic yet to register a point, they may already have done enough to line up a two-legged battle for survival in March, with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine, Scotland and Kosovo among the potential opponents.

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