Brazil: Polls close in tight race between Lula and Bolsonaro

Polls have closed in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, with leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth non-consecutive term and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro seeking to continue the right-wing populist movement started by his father, Jair Bolsonaro.

The vote is expected to be a tight race between the two leading candidates, with neither likely to win more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff that would take place on October 25.

Lula and Bolsonaro wrapped up their campaigns on Saturday in Brazil's economic powerhouse state of Sao Paulo.

Lula vows to 'defeat the far right'

The 80-year-old Lula capped off his campaign with a tour through the city of Sao Paulo, vowing to "defeat the far right."

Organizers said some 150,000 of Lula's supporters turned up for the rally in Brazil's largest city.

Lula has campaigned on continuing his left-leaning Workers' Party platform, comprising welfare programs, state-funded development and income redistribution.

"The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic regime and barbarism ... between progress and backwardness," he said as he cast his ballot on Sunday.

Bolsonaro calls for 'change'

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has served as the Liberal Party's senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. On Saturday, he led a motorcycle parade through Sao Paulo's countryside cities of Santa Barbara d'Oeste and Americana.

He also held up a portrait of his father, while the crowd shouted "mito" — a Portuguese word for "legend" that Jair Bolsonaro's supporters use to refer to him.

The right-wing Bolsonaro has campaigned on hardline security policies and tax cuts, emphasizing high cost of living under Lula, who he has slammed as "incompetent."

"Brazil needs change," the son of the former president said as he cast his vote. "Brazil cannot bear any more suffering, such as high taxes, so many women killed."

Brazil's 2022 election rematch

The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year sentence in prison for attempting a coup to overturn his loss to Lula in the 2022 presidential election. Flavio Bolsonaro has vowed to pardon his father if elected.

Lula's team has cast the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazil's sovereignty, pointing to Flavio and Jair's ties with US President Donald Trump, who last year slapped a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial.  The US president called the case a "witch hunt."

Brazilians vote in high-stakes presidential election

The younger Bolsonaro has said in interviews he is "more moderate" than his father, who he has nevertheless said will remain "my compass, my point of reference."

Policies where both Bolsonaros are similar include relaxed gun control laws and skepticism of human-caused climate change. 

Trump has not endorsed the senator, but has said he is watching the election "very closely."

What happens next?

Brazil finds itself politically divided, and campaigning has been bitter, with online operations from both sides seizing on every gaffe, accusation and rumor, quickly producing slick videos or AI-generated images for social media.

In September, it was revealed Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion tied to the financing of a biopic about his father. He has denied any misconduct. 

Who is Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro?

The latest polling for the first round of voting shows Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%, according to the Brazilian data intelligence and public opinion research firm Quaest cited by Reuters news agency.

In the case of a run-off, the Quaest poll shows Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 44%.

In 2022, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by only 1.8 percentage points.

Along with voting for president, Brazil's 160 million registered voters are also choosing other lawmakers, governors, and some senators.

Brazil election: Lula, Bolsonaro focus on women's vote

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