Execs predict NFL season's second half: Who will win division races, MVP, Super Bowl?

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  Jeremy FowlerNov 13, 2026, 06:00 AM ET

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  Jeremy Fowler is a senior national NFL writer for ESPN, covering the entire league including breaking news. Jeremy also contributes to SportsCenter both as a studio analyst and a sideline reporter covering for NFL games. He is an Orlando, Florida native who joined ESPN in 2014 after covering college football for CBSSports.com.

The first nine weeks of the NFL season serve as a roadmap for the rest of the season -- complete with a few potholes on the way to Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles.

The NFC South is usually a rough ride (one your navigation system of choice probably will avoid), and this season is no different. The division is a combined 12-22. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a clear path to L.A., as their AFC South rivals appear low on gas. Jacksonville is 6-2; The rest of the division is 6-19.The Buffalo Bills, at 7-1, are outdistancing the AFC East pit crew, and the NFC East features the New York Giants in cruise control, as the only team with more than four wins.

But the other four divisions are well-stocked with upgrades -- and enough horsepower to reach L.A. The race begins in earnest now.

To examine all of this -- as well as identify a few sleepers, MVP options and Super Bowl contenders -- we asked league evaluators to assess the midway point and what happens next in the division races. Buckle up.

Jump to exec intel on:
NFC North | AFC West | NFC West | AFC North
Playoff sleepers | MVP
Breakouts | Super Bowl

The (NFC) North remembears

A division is truly deep when 6-2 gets a team zero separation in the standings. The division is a combined 31-9 entering Week 10, and ESPN's Bill Barnwell made the case it could be the strongest division we've ever seen.

The 6-3 Green Bay Packers have the worst record, but are surging with one of the league's most dangerous passing games. The Vikings' recent addition of Kirk Cousins to complement an elite defense makes that two-game losing streak to fall to 6-2 a little less stressful for Skol faithful. The Detroit Lions can score on any defense, and in several different ways. But it's the man who once led the Detroit offense, Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson, who's considered a separator.

"Chicago is the best-coached," an AFC executive said. "He's elite. One of the best in the NFL and only in Year 2. One of the best offenses week-in and week-out, as well. Defense is solid. Caleb [Williams] just has to play within the scheme and they will win it easily, I believe."

Chicago needs its defensive backfield to hold up; the Bears evaluated corner options at the trade deadline before ultimately letting the addition of superstar defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons suffice.

K.C., Denver on full display

The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs are shaping up for the best two-team divisional race.

Denver needed every second on the clock to edge Kansas City 28-24 in Week 8. The Chiefs, once winners of nine consecutive AFC West titles, find themselves in the unfamiliar position of chasing a defending champion. But some around the league remain hesitant to pick Denver to win the West for a second consecutive year.

"They are close enough, but if both teams are healthy, [Patrick] Mahomes gives K.C. the edge," a veteran AFC personnel evaluator said. "Both teams are really good and balanced, so QB play breaks the tie. I still worry about Kansas City's receiving corps, but Denver's offense has been disjointed this year."

Denver ranks 27th in rushing (91.4 yards per game) and 24th in passing (185.9 yards per game). It's hard to win a divisional title that way, no matter how clutch the defense and Bo Nix are week after week.

Is the NFC West as advertised?

The standings say it's not. Very few people projected the two teams in last year's NFC Championship Game to have matching 5-4 records at this stage, but that's exactly where the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams sit.

Both teams have problems: Seattle is struggling to score, and the Rams can't get healthy. Regardless, both teams might just be talented enough to make a run at San Francisco (7-1), which hosts the Seahawks in Week 12 and the Rams in Week 14. The 49ers look like a team ready to wrap up the division by then.

"They've already built a [2½-game] lead and it looks like they are turning the corner on injuries," an AFC executive said. "The Rams didn't get a receiver at the deadline and that's going to hurt. [Seahawks quarteback] Sam Darnold is struggling in the new offense and Arizona is, well, Arizona."

Most of San Francisco's starting defense has returned, and receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. will be back soon enough. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is without Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, and Darnold is missing a stretch of games for the second time this season.

Depth prevails in AFC North

The AFC North is one (OK, two) Lamar Jackson injuries away from rivaling its NFC parallel as the deepest division in football.

Jackson's absence has Baltimore reeling, but the Steelers are riding a four-game winning streak and the Bengals just poured 143 points on their past four opponents. Cleveland, despite a two-game losing streak, has a lot of optimism, as the Browns are brimming with young talent.

In the eyes of many evaluators, though, the Bengals are poised to win their first divisional crown since 2022, if health prevails and the defense holds up.

"I'm going with the Bengals because of Burrow," an NFC executive said. "He's playing at such a high level, and even though they struggle to run the ball at times, it almost doesn't matter because of all that he does. If the defense can just maintain, they should be a threat."

Evaluators note the Steelers' offensive line and running backs are playing very well (Jaylen Warren's 5.9 yards per carry leads all qualified players by a healthy margin), but many still don't trust the passing game enough to knock off Cincinnati.

Two sleepers who could wake up

Those who picked the Houston Texans to make a deep playoff push are clinging to those projections despite the Texans' disappointing 3-5 clip.

"[C.J.] Stroud is playing really well, and there's reason to believe the defense will round into form in the second half," an AFC scout said. "The running game has been hit or miss but that's been the case."

The 3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers could make some noise if they emerge from the NFC South race. A stout defense and potent running game should translate well to January football.

Brock Purdy: From Mr. Irrelevant to MVP?

Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow got the most consideration here, but Purdy is leading the best team and has the highest QBR at 81.4. He's also on pace to rush for more than 400 yards.

"He's playing a position at a high level, "an NFC executive said. "He's putting it all together."

Another NFL executive who named Purdy cited another reason he could prevail. "It's a narrative-driven award and they look like the best team in the NFC, he's playing efficiently and they haven't been healthy so he is helping lift them up."

Burrow is in the midst of his best season and leads the league in touchdowns. C.J. Stroud has also taken a leap in Houston, positioning himself for a huge contract this offseason, and Jordan Love is keeping the Packers in contention despite a highly questionable offensive line.

Ascending rookies

Running back Kaelon Black looks the part in Kyle Shanahan's 49ers offense, with 23 carries for 133 yards and a touchdown in his past two games. That profile could only grow.

"He's an explosive runner who's hard to keep off the field, and Christian [McCaffrey] will undoubtedly get hurt at some point," an NFC exec said.

On defense, evaluators are watching Kansas City's R Mason Thomas closely. The second-round pick has only one sack but untapped potential with impressive get-off. "It's a matter of time for him," an NFC scout said.

Super Bowl picks to keep an eye on

Look out for this matchup: The Chicago Bears against the Buffalo Bills. Both teams have multi-faceted offensive attacks, star quarterbacks with dual-threat ability and enough roster talent to get hot.

We touched on Chicago earlier. As for Buffalo, it features "the best quarterback and offense by far," as one AFC exec put it. "The defense is doing enough. There's a large gap between them and New England (in AFC East)."

Both defenses could fall in the 'doing enough' boat, not exactly the most star-studded groups. But both front offices were aggressive with acquisitions at the trade deadline, tapping into the Tennessee Titans' pool of players: Jeffery Simmons to the Bears, Amani Hooker to the Bills. Both teams were aggressive...because they know they have something.