T-bills: 91-day, 364-day yields to trade slightly higher in second half of 2026

The 91-day bill is expected to trade within 5.5%-7.5% in the second half of 2026, while the 364-day bill would trade within 12.5%-14.0%.

According to Databank Research, its outlook reflects the competing effects of the Treasury’s cost-containment strategy and higher funding requirements linked to upcoming obligations.

It said in its 2026 Half-Year Report that active yield management should limit sharp repricing, although increased financing needs are likely to keep rates under moderate upward pressure over the period.

Presently, the yields on the 91-day and 364-day bills are hovering around 4.9% and 10% respectively.

“We expect domestic liquidity conditions to remain broadly supportive in 2H’26 [second-half 2026], with the GH¢10.8 billion DDEP [Domestic Debt Exchange Programme] coupon payment due in August 2026 providing an initial boost to market liquidity. Reinvestment by banks, pension funds and collective investment schemes should sustain demand for government securities, supporting auction coverage and secondary-market activity, particularly in 3Q’26 [quarter 3, 2026]. However, the impact may moderate later in the year as increased sovereign and corporate issuance absorbs excess liquidity”, it stated.

It also expects the Treasury to progressively build on its return to the domestic bond market through targeted medium- and long-term issuances, supporting yield-curve development and reducing reliance on short-dated T-bills.

According to the financial market research firm, this should be complemented by planned debt-reprofiling and bond-buyback operations aimed at retiring high-cost obligations and smoothing the maturity profile.

Therefore, issuance should remain active as the government builds the Sinking Fund from GH¢15.6 billion towards its GH¢30 billion year-end target and strengthens buffers ahead of sizeable DDEP maturities from 2027.  

Investor demand remained robust in the first-half of 2026, with total bids rising 94.1% year-on-year to GH¢234.86 billion.

Average target-cover and bid-to-cover ratios of 1.10x and 1.39x, respectively, reflected healthy auction demand despite intermittent moderation in participation.

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