NZ election poll watch: minor parties gain as Labour and National slide

Six weeks out from the November 7 election, the latest 1News Verian poll (conducted September 23–27 from a sample of 1,004 voters) recorded a fall for the major parties and gains for most minors:

• National: 28% (down one since the mid-August Verian poll)
• Labour: 28% (down two)
• Greens: 16% (up four)
• ACT 11% (up two)
• NZ First 9% (up one)
• Opportunity: 6% (down two)
• Te Pāti Māori: 1.2% (up 0.1)

This was a record high for the Greens in a 1News Verian poll.

The combined votes for the right (National, ACT and NZ First) continued to lead the combined vote for the left (Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori) by an unchanged three-point margin.

With Opportunity on 6% in this poll, it would have the balance of power if these numbers were reflected in the final election result. But if Opportunity falls below the 5% list threshold and fails to win an electorate seat, the right would win a majority.

Because parties that win a single member electorate are exempt from the 5% threshold, if Te Pāti Māori wins at least one of the seven Māori electorates, it will still be returned to parliament (despite only polling 1–2% in polls conducted during September).

Overall trends

The graph below shows the right’s lead or deficit against the left in all New Zealand polls since July. Polls by the same pollster are connected with a line.

When I introduced this graph in August, there were five pollsters: Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union, Reid Research for RNZ, Verian for 1News, Roy Morgan and Talbot Mills.

Talbot Mills (TM) has now rebranded as Anacta, and one more pollster has been added in September: Freshwater Strategy for The Post newspaper. The right minus left figure is calculated from this Wikipedia poll table.

The four September polls (Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union, Freshwater, Anacta and Verian) have all given the right a three to six point lead over the left. The early September Curia poll had Opportunity at 4.5%, below the 5% threshold.

If the election result reflected the Curia poll, the right would win an overall majority of seats. On other recent polls, the right would be short of a majority with Opportunity holding the balance of power.