US midterms have opened the door to global climate cooperation

On the landscape of our discontent, several craters pose immediate challenges: Conflicts without end, struggling multilateral institutions, trade handcuffed by tariffs, the looming AI takeover, and so on. It is easy, and often profitable, to turn one’s face away from the challenge of climate change. Performative grandstanding – as we will no doubt see at COP 31 in Antalya, Turkey — or superficial greenwashing is considered sufficient. This deliberate downplaying or ignoring of the climate crisis now has a name: Climate hushing.

But monsters don’t go away with a finger on their lips. While the world is looking elsewhere, the Earth’s climate system is hurtling headlong into uncharted waters. Several vital markers of the climate crisis are at record extremes: Carbon dioxide levels are higher now than at any time in the last two million years; extreme heat, droughts, floods and wildfires are common occurrences; glacier thickness and Greenland ice mass are at record lows. Staying below the 2015 Paris goal of 1.5 degree Celsius warming is no longer possible. Further, the climate crisis is intersecting with biodiversity loss, freshwater stress, food shortages, pathogens and geopolitical instability. Most of these trends are anthropogenic, driven by unsustainable human activity, particularly fossil fuel dependence. The consequences are inequitable in the extreme: while the rich grow richer, Global South communities and the small island States, historically the least responsible for emissions, bear the most severe consequences. Yet the gap between climate science and societal response continues to widen, even as the risks escalate.

The US under President Donald Trump has been particularly culpable. Trump believes climate change is a hoax and a conspiracy by China to make US manufacturing uncompetitive. He has withdrawn twice from the 2015 Paris Agreement, saying “I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris.” By early 2027, the US will have withdrawn from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the leading authority on climate science. The absence from these forums of the world’s largest economy and historically the largest contributor to greenhouse gas accumulation weakens the already fragile international climate cooperation; other countries find it easier to blunt their own climate ambitions. International climate financing and technological assistance for mitigation, adaptation and energy transformation all lose steam. Trump’s policies have expanded fossil-fuel production (represented by the slogan, Drill, baby, drill) while exposing, through his misguided war on Iran, the deep vulnerabilities of a fossil-fuel based global economy. He has reversed and defunded Biden-era clean energy initiatives, rolled back regulatory constraints protecting the environment and forests, and stopped offshore wind projects. In the process, he has handed over the central position in solar manufacturing, battery supply chains and several clean-energy technologies to China.

The dramatic results of the recent midterm polls present a slim hope for the repair of the US’s climate policies, with both domestic and international impact. While climate was not on the ballot – Democratic candidates were advised to practise climate hushing -- climate policy was very much there by implication: A war that exposed the vulnerability of fossil fuel dependence, rising energy costs, climate disasters and wildfires, and the acne-like breakout of data centres across the country made up the affordability crisis that agitated the voters.

Climate-forward Democrats have won the first round against oil companies, Big Tech and Big Money but it remains to be seen how effectively they can mend specific climate policies. While Trump’s veto powers will hamper major legislative changes, Democrats are likely to exercise greater budgetary oversight, resist further deregulation and encourage clean energy investments. Fully reversing many of Trump’s acts may have to await a change in the Oval Office or a significant bipartisan consensus. Opposition to data centres is one issue that has bipartisan appeal. Data centres are unpopular because of higher energy bills, shrinkage of water resources, noise and air pollution, an increased carbon footprint and a general scepticism towards artificial intelligence. Tougher regulation, or even a moratorium, on data centres could soon be on the cards. State-level climate policies could be another positive development: Several of the newly elected Democratic governors are strong climate advocates: The first female Native American governor Deb Haaland (New Mexico), the first female Black governor Keisha Lance Bottoms (Georgia), Amy Acton of Ohio and Gina Hinojosa of Texas.

Any signal emanating from the US on climate policy will be a welcome impetus to global climate efforts. While there will be no federal delegation from the US at COP 31, the presence of a 19-member delegation of Congressional Democrats at the Conference will send a significant diplomatic message indicating renewed US interest; another large delegation consisting of mayors, governors and a cross-section of representatives at state and city level will also demonstrate engagement at the sub-national level.

Once the new US Congress convenes in January 2027, climate and clean energy issues should form a vital part of India’s outreach on the Hill. India has a good story to tell on clean energy, having crossed 300 GW of installed non-fossil fuel capacity; renewables are over 50% of installed electricity capacity with solar capacity being the third highest in the world. This story should get a more receptive hearing as climate advocates try to balance out the Trump administration’s focus on energy access and fossil fuel exports from the US. The scaffolding for bilateral cooperation in this field already exists; a more coordinated approach that accelerates technology cooperation and more public as well as private climate finance would assist India’s efforts in generation, manufacturing, storage and transmission of renewable energy. Going beyond the bilateral, India is in a convincing position to play a role as a bridge to the Global South and lead efforts to unblock climate finance and climate technology for developing countries, in particular for adaptation and climate resilience programmes in vulnerable communities.

The door to global climate cooperation is once again open, if only by just a crack. Given the existential nature of the threat posed by global warming, the only choice is to push through.

Navtej Sarna is a former ambassador of India to the United States and high commissioner to the UK. The views expressed are personal